May 12, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 16-17c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.86-$1.87,
💲US Dollar is up 128-129 points.
-Potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. Details should be announced today.
-The U.S. is suspending imports of live cattle, horses and bison at the southern border due to the spread of the New World Screwworm.
-USDA will release their May Crop Production report today at 11:00 am CT. This will be the first look at the USDA projecting a yield for the US corn and soybean crops.
-Very busy weekend of corn and soybean planting across the entire U.S. The western corn belt is wrapping up and the eastern corn belt is rapidly catching up. We could see corn planting progress at 62-64% and soybean planting progress at 50-52% today.
-The Funds have a small, long position in corn and soybeans. This was as of last Tuesday, so odds suggest the Funds are currently holding a short position in corn and slight long in soybeans.
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade today with news about a potential Chinese trade deal.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.42 1/4 which is the low from May 8th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.35 3/4 which is the May 8th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.36 1/2 which is the low from May 6th. Resistance is at $10.67 1/2 which is the high from April 25th.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.34 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.44 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
All eyes will be on the USDA here today. We will likely see the USDA project a trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre which will give the U.S. a carryout above 2 billion bushels again. We have a lot of the growing season ahead of us and it is early, but the upper mid-west saw some record temps over the weekend and to start this week. News of a trade deal with China broke over the weekend but the details are still unknown. Soybean futures are pushing higher, and corn is getting a little support. We should find out more details early this week.
Soybean futures are pushing higher and testing resistance as talks of a Chinese trade deal was announced over the weekend. Details of the trade deal will be released early this week, but most traders are expecting China to increase their purchases of U.S. soybeans. USDA will likely project a soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre and a carryout of 375 million bushels. Planting progress here today could see soybeans over 50% planted in the U.S. The weather does bring some cooler temps across the upper mid-west with some chances of rain as well. Overall, if July soybeans can take out and close above resistance at $10.67 1/2 (which they are trading above currently), we could test the $11.00-$11.10 area.
The Kansas City wheat futures put in a new low here in the overnight session but have since reversed and are now trading higher. The weather looks good for the winter wheat conditions to improve. The Funds currently have a record short position in Kansas City wheat. Wheat futures on their own will struggle to rally but if soybeans and corn can rally due to a trade deal with China, wheat will follow.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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