May 9, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.10-$1.12,
💲US Dollar is down 17-18 points.
-The U.S. has announced a trade deal with UK. U.S. beef seems to be gaining strength over the trade deal.
-Weekly export sales yesterday saw another very strong week for corn; soybeans were at the top end of trading range and wheat sales were mid-range.
-Planting pace across the U.S. saw a big week of advancement. We could see corn around 60% planted and well ahead of the 5-year pace at 54%. Soybeans could be around 45% planted with the 5-year pace at 34% for this time of year.
-Monday, the USDA will release their May Crop Production report. Traders are looking for a corn yield of 181 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre. Carryout on corn is estimated to be a little over 2 billion bushels with soybean carryout to be about 375 million bushels.
-The weather in the U.S. should allow planters to run hard this weekend with many in the western corn belt wrapping up and the eastern corn belt, guys are rapidly catching up,
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade today with traders positioning themselves ahead of the Crop Production report.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.42 1/4 which is the low from May 8th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.36 1/2 which is the low from May 6th. Resistance is at $10.67 1/2 which is the high from April 25th.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.34 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.20 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.48 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market ended the yesterday lower but well off their lows. The May contract, which is still trading, found support at $4.34 which is a support line from the continuation chart. The bull spreads were getting hit again yesterday, but by the close they were back working. Maybe we found support and we can consolidate here today. On Monday the USA will give us their first estimate at a corn yield for the U.S. Planting pace on Monday could be 60% or higher complete which will be well ahead of the 5-year pace. With a trendline yield around 181 bushels per acre, the U.S. carryout could easily push back above 2 billion bushels. Overall, without any weather issue, I look for corn prices to trend sideways to lower.
Soybean futures closed higher yesterday off a strong week of export sales. USDA will more than likely give us a trendline yield around 52.5 bushels per acre which should put our carryout up around 375 million bushels. Soybeans are getting planted in the U.S. at a rapid pace, but we all know it ultimately depends on the weather in August. Look for soybean futures to trend sideways, but if we start hearing more trade deals, we could see soybeans push a little higher.
The wheat market has been tough to read the past few weeks. We sold off due to improving conditions, thought we stabilized, only to see July Kansas City wheat put in a new contract low yesterday. The U.S. wheat is some of the cheapest in the World, yet we are not seeing export business pick up lately. I look for wheat to continue to be an anchor here and rallies will be limited.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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