May 8, 2025
At this hour
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-5c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up 74-76c,
💲US Dollar is up 55-56 points.
-The Fed announced they will leave interest rates alone and also noted inflation has come down.
-Funds continue to exit out of their long positions and get into a more neutral position ahead of critical weather for the U.S.
-USDA will release its first yield estimate for the 2025/26 crop on Monday May 12th.
-Weekly export sales will be released out here today at 7:30 am CT. Here are the estimates: corn 750,000-1,700,000 MT, soybeans 200,000-700,000 MT, wheat 100,000-600,000 MT and soybean meal 200,000-400,000 MT.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today for corn, soybeans and wheat.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.37 which is the low from December 5th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.36 1/2 which is the low from May 6th. Resistance is at $10.67 1/2 which is the high from April 25th.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.34 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.25 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.50 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market shrugged off support of potential trade talks between US/China and is focused on the facts that the US corn crop is getting planted well ahead of average pace and under good conditions. This is causing the Funds to exit their long positions and take a neutral position ahead of critical weather period for the US growing season. USDA will give us their first shot at a corn yield on Monday. Odds favor they will use 181 bushels per acre. Until we get a threatening weather pattern in the US, I look for corn to drift sideways to a little lower.
For the past month, July soybeans have basically traded between $10.37 and $10.67. USDA Crop Production report on Monday May 12th should not hold many surprises for soybeans. Most are expecting the USDA to use a yield of 52 bushels per acre and the 2024/25 soybean carryout number should hold around 370 million bushels. With the US Dollar trading around 99.5-100 and plenty of supply of soybeans in the World, it will take a trade deal with China or some adverse weather in the US to get soybeans to rally much.
The wheat market seems to be consolidating here putting in a basing pattern which is common of a low. The US wheat is some of the cheapest in the World. Conditions for the winter wheat crop are improving. Demand is stead for US wheat. This is a market that is really searching for something new to trade on. Overall, the wheat market has endured a lot of negative news again lately and seems to be putting in a low but rallies will be limited for now.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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