May 7, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are up 11-12c,
🍞wheat is up 5-7c,
🛢️crude oil is up 37-38c,
💲US Dollar is up 18-19 points.
-China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is to meet with U.S. Treasury Bessent. Could be the start of talks on a trade deal with China.
-Good rains in Brazil has individuals talking of a bigger Safrina corn crop.
-Planting progress is rolling hard in the U.S. The western corn belt looks to wrap up planting this week while the Delta and eastern corn belt catch up rapidly.
-July soybeans closed below the 100-day moving average yesterday and seem to be fighting the $10.50 area.
-Some talks of dryness in China causing concern over their wheat crop and forecast are calling for hot temps and dry conditions the next 2 weeks.
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade today with optimism that the U.S. and China are going to engage in trade deal talks.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is the low from March 28th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.42 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.67 1/2 which is the high from April 25th.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.35 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.25 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.53 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
After trading lower 3 of the last 4 trading sessions, July corn futures are finding some support. Potential trade talks between the U.S. and China could be happening in the near future. July corn futures did hold support at $4.50 and now look to push back higher. Will this be a classic “buy the rumor and sell the fact” deal over potential trade talks? Global corn supplies are still very tight; however, Brazil has a big safrina corn crop coming and the U.S. acres are getting planted right on schedule and under good conditions. Look for corn to push higher and find some resistance around $4.70 on July corn futures.
Soybean futures are off to a nice start here today. July soybeans are trading above the $10.50 resistance level and back above the 200-day moving average. Optimism over the U.S. and China sitting down to potentially talk over a trade deal is pushing the soybeans higher. We still have plenty of soybeans in the U.S. and World, but a trade deal with China could boost demand from the U.S. There is not a lot of other news for the soybeans but with the U.S. and China looking to sit down to talk, this should push soybeans higher and test the $10.67 1/2 resistance level on July futures.
There are some talks of dryness setting up in parts of China that could be affecting a portion of their winter wheat production. The Henan province is experiencing hot and dry conditions there, causing concern over their winter wheat crop. Ther are in the stage of filling the heads of the wheat, so it is a critical stage for the wheat. There is also some chatter about disease issues with the U.S. winter wheat as well, but those seem to be isolated areas. Overall, wheat is just too cheap in here and due for a bounce.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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