May 6, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 1-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.58-$1.59,
💲US Dollar is down 10-11 points.
-Corn and soybean planting in the U.S. continues on a very strong pace. 40% of the U.S. corn is planted and 30% of the U.S. soybean acres are planted.
-Weather across the U.S. looks to dry out the next 7-10 days giving farmers a big window to get the majority of this year crop in the ground by May 12th.
-Weekly export inspections were very strong again this week on corn at 1.6 MMT. Mexico continues to be a big buyer of U.S. corn as they battle drought conditions for the 3rd year in a row.
-Soybean futures continue to trade around the 200-day moving average where corn traded below the 200-day moving average as Funds stepped in and were big sellers.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today for corn and soybeans.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is the low from March 28th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.42 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.67 1/2 which is the high from April 25th.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.35 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.25 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.55 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The July/December corn spread collapsed yesterday. Heavy Fund selling caused the old crop July futures to close down 14+ cents. The Funds were holding a long position of about 71,000+ contracts long, but with the selling yesterday, many are thinking the Funds might be heading to the sidelines until we get closer to pollination. Demand continues to be very good for U.S. corn as we are basically the only place in the World to buy corn from. The corn planters will roll hard this week, especially in the eastern corn belt where they look to catch up and my guess is by next Monday we could see a record 1-week planting pace on corn. Overall, we did some damage to the corn charts yesterday and with the weather forecast looking very good for planting and crop emergence, corn will have a tough time rallying.
The soybean market sort of fell victim to the lower corn and wheat futures yesterday. Soybean planting pace is well above the 5-year average and the weather forecast for this week should keep soybeans on a record planting pace across the U.S. Weekly export inspections yesterday were a bit disappointing. Soybean oil was lower yesterday with crude oil under pressure, also President’s Trump budget proposal does talk about cuts in renewable fuels, USDA cuts and EPA spending. Overall, soybeans are going to be planted in record time this year and enough moisture to get the crop growing. Rallies will be limited in the near term.
Winter wheat conditions gained another 2% in the good/excellent category and are now rated 51% good/excellent. This compares to 50% rated good/excellent the same week last year. Kansas City wheat looks to be consolidating here between $5.25 and $5.60. Weekly export inspections on wheat yesterday were disappointing. We continue to find stiff competition for wheat across the World even with low prices and a lower U.S. Dollar.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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