May 5, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 6-7c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 77-78c,
💲US Dollar is down 40-41 points.
-OPEC+ countries announced over the weekend they will be increasing production of crude oil, causing crude oil to gap lower last night.
-Corn and soybean planting progress continues to push forward. 5-year average pace for this week is 39% planted on corn and 21% planted on soybeans.
-Weather across the U.S. looks to dry out for most of the planting areas, giving farmers a good opportunity to get caught up planting in the eastern corn belt and the deep south.
-Western corn belt made big progress with planting the past 4-5 days and with a dry forecast, I would think a week from now there will be very little to plant in western corn belt.
-The U.S. Dollar continues to trade below 100, making U.S. commodities more competitive.
🐂🐻Look for a lower start today, but if crude oil bounces back, grain prices could push higher as well.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.80 which is the 100-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.54 which is the 100-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.42 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.67 1/2 which is the high from April 25th.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.35 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.25 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.57 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn planting progress this week should be a little under the 5-year average and around 32-34% planted in the U.S. The forecast does call for a drier pattern for the next 10-15 days and that should allow the crop to get planted and under good conditions. Corn prices are a little lower this morning, mainly due to crude oil being down as much at $2.44 at one point, but crude oil prices are bouncing back a little. Without much new news in the corn market and with planting pace looking to catch up and exceed the 5-year pace, corn prices this week will have a ceiling on them.
The 5-year average soybean planting pace for May 5th is 21% planted. Last week the U.S. was 18% planted so we will continue to be ahead of the 5-year pace. Soybean planting pace did slow a little this past week as most farmers focused on corn planting, but the forecast does not show much of any moisture in the 10-15 day forecast so look for the record planting pace to continue. July soybean futures are holding support right at the 200-day moving average here this morning, but lack of any fresh new news will keep a lid on soybean prices.
Crop conditions look to improve this week as much of the southern wheat plains have received some good moisture the past 10 days or so. Last week 49% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good/excellent” and that number should get better again this week. We did hear of some demand for U.S. wheat exports surface last week as prices are near contract lows and the U.S. Dollar is trading below 100. I look for wheat prices to consolidate and trend sideways here this week building a basing pattern before they make their next move.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 5, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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