May 2, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 6-7c,
🛢️crude oil is down 32-34c,
💲US Dollar is down 55-56 points.
-Potential trade deal with India had the soybean oil market higher yesterday. Traders feel soybean oil could be a big winner with an India trade deal.
-July corn hit resistance at $4.80 yesterday and backed off. Spreads were weaker as well.
-Corn export sales were within the range but off from the previous week. Sales are still running well ahead of USDA’s projection.
-Soybeans had a good weekly export sale number and running very close to USDA’s annual export projection.
-Weather continues to bring some lingering showers across the corn belt, putting a pause on planting. December corn seems to be adding a little premium back in.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade here today as we close out the week.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.61 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.80 which is the 100-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.41 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.49 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.35 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.25 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.58 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market was a bit disappointing yesterday. The bull spreads were working but when July futures could not take out resistance at $4.80, selling emerged in the July contract. Support for July corn is at this week’s low of $4.68 1/2 which is the bottom side of the potential bull flag formation. We saw some export activity pick up this week for U.S. corn and basis levels across much of the U.S. are firming up as well, so I would look for the July/December bull spread to firm back up next week.
Soybeans were led by soybean oil yesterday. A potential trade deal with India could really boost demand for U.S. soybean oil. There is also optimism that the EPA will give us some guidance regarding RVO’s. July soybean futures are pushing back above the 200-day moving average looking to test last Friday’s high of $10.67 1/2. Demand for U.S. soybeans remains steady. With the U.S. Dollar holding below 100, this should keep demand steady until we take over the exports this fall during harvest.
Let’s see if the wheat can actually hold a higher trade here today. Much of this week we saw Kansas City wheat start the morning higher, only to trade and close lower on the day. Weekly exports were within the range expected and with the U.S. Dollar under 100, I have to think that U.S. wheat is very competitive in the World market. First thing first, we need to see wheat stop going lower before it can head higher.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 5, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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