May 1, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 5-6c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.45-$1.47c,
💲US Dollar is up 38-39 points.
-Flash export sale of corn of 120,000 MT yesterday to unknown destinations.
-Corn and ethanol exports continue to run well ahead of the USDA projections, likely indicating we could see carryout levels decrease in the May report.
-Still no guidance from the EPA regarding RVO and that seems to be adding pressure to soybean prices.
-The Middle East is increasing their production of crude oil putting pressure on that market.
-Weekly export sales out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 800,000-1,700,000 MT, soybeans 150,000-700,000 MT, wheat (-100,000)-700,000 MT and soybean meal 150,000-450,000 MT.
-Rain showers continue to linger across many portions of the U.S. putting a hold on planting for now. Next week it does look to dry out and give farmers a good window to plant.
🐂🐻Look for corn and wheat to continue to gain on soybeans here today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.61 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.79 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.49 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.39 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.49 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is an old support line and resistance is at $10.36 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City Wheat – Initial support is at $5.27 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.61 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn spreads continue to firm up here the past couple days after they were crushed earlier this week with the fund liquidation of May corn futures. We have had 3 days in a row of flash sales of old crop corn out of the U.S. Export demand for U.S. corn and ethanol continue to run ahead of USDA projections, indicating we could see an increase in demand and lower carryout stocks in the May USDA Crop Production report. July corn futures are pushing back up against resistance here today. A close above $4.82 this week would be very positive.
Soybean market just cannot find much support here this week. We are still waiting for guidance from the EPA regarding RVO and the biomass diesel mandates. Soybean futures have slipped back under support of the 200-day moving average. Demand for U.S. soybeans remains steady even with South America selling a lot of soybeans to China. Even with large World ending stocks and U.S. soybean planting off to a record start, it is still too early in the growing season to discount the price too much. We have a lot of the growing season to get through and a hot/dry August could sure change the landscape U.S. and World ending stocks. So, taking the “risk” premium out of the bean market this early seems a bit overdone.
The wheat market is trying to stabilize. We are hearing of some feed wheat export business getting done off the PNW suggesting to me that wheat should start to carve out a low in here soon. Weather this week for the southern wheat plains should have been very beneficial for crop development. Overall, the wheat market is looking for some fresh news to trade on.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 5, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
