April 30, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is mixed,
🌱soybeans are down 6-8c,
🍞wheat is up 0-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 47-48c,
💲US Dollar is up 18-99 points.
-Esport sales announced yesterday morning saw 120,000 MT of corn to Spain and 110,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations.
-Yesterday’s selloff was mainly due to Fund liquidating their May positions ahead of first notice day and month end.
-Talks are heating up of a potential trade deal between the U.S. and India. There has been no mention of any details yet.
-Weather across the U.S. looks pretty neutral. Planting progress will push forward just not on the blistering pace we saw the past 2 weeks.
-Basis levels on corn and soybeans across the U.S. continue to firm up as the farmer is not interested in moving grain right now.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trad early today and we could find some support by the close.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.54 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.74 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
December corn – support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is the March 31st low. Resistance comes in at $4.49 which is 200-day moving average.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $10.28 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.38 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.19 which is the 20-day moving average and resistance is at $10.36 which is the 200-day moving average.
July Kansas City Wheat – Initial support is at $5.30 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.63 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The flash sale of corn to Spain yesterday highlights that the U.S. is pretty much the only place to buy corn from in the World right now. Heading into first notice day here today we saw the Funds sell out of bunch of May corn futures yesterday, crashing the spreads too. It feels like yesterday’s selloff was just a correction and we should find support for corn soon. The weather in the U.S. should allow the corn planting pace to push forward without too many interruptions. The corn market should find support here soon as demand for U.S. corn remains quite strong.
Soybean futures traded below the 200-day moving average yesterday but managed to close above it. Now today, we are back trading below the 200-day moving average. If we close below the 200-day moving average, look for a quick test of the 100-day moving average which comes in at $10.28 1/2 on the May contract. Overall, soybeans continue to trade sideways in low daily ranges getting ready to breakout in either direction.
Yesterday’s rumor of a potential trade deal with India about ready to be officially announced, one has to think wheat stands a good chance to gain some market share. The futures are not indicating that at this time. Wheat prices are stabilizing in here after breaking out to the downside with improved crop ratings and improved weather forecasts. The wheat market needs to consolidate and trend sideways for a bit before moving higher.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 5, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
