April 29, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 87-88c,
💲US Dollar is up 28-29 points.
-The U.S. corn is 24% planted vs 22% average; soybeans are off to a record start and are 18% planted vs 12% average.
-Winter wheat conditions gained 4% this week and are rated 49% good/excellent.
-Weekly export inspections this week saw wheat at a 7-month high, corn inspections were at the top end of range again and the soybean inspections were within the trading range.
-Extended weather maps are looking to bring a lot of moisture to the southern wheat plains over the next 8-15 days. The eastern corn belt looks to get a window to get some planting done.
-Weather in South America has greatly improved as traders are talking a potential bigger crop coming out of Argentina now.
-Basis levels for corn and soybeans in the U.S. along with firmer spreads yesterday should keep old corn and soybean prices supported.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.74 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.90 3/4 which is the high from April 11th.
December corn – support comes in at $4.49 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.69 1/2 which is high from April 16th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.66 3/4 which is the high from February 21, 2025.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.25 which is the 100-day moving average and resistance is at $10.36 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
May Kansas City Wheat – Initial support is at $5.20 3/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.53 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market saw good spread action between old crop and new crop yesterday. Demand for U.S. corn continues to stay strong. Some analysts are looking for the USDA to increase corn exports again in the next USDA report thus reducing our carryout. May corn futures are still working on a potential bull flag formation. Key support for the May contract is $4.69 1/2. A close below the $4.69 1/2 level will negate the bull flag formation. Planting progress will get rolling across the U.S. later this week. Extended weather maps look to bring normal moisture to much of the corn belt allowing the planting pace to stay ahead of the 5-year average. I look for corn prices to stay well supported but the upside is limited right now as weather looks to be pretty good.
Soybean planting pace is off to a record start in the U.S. May soybean futures continue to hold above the 200-day moving average, which is positive. For the past 2 weeks or so, the soybean market has been consolidating and trading in some lower range days. There is just a lack of any fresh news for the soybean market. South America continues to export a lot of soybeans to China; however, the U.S. continues to sell a decent number of soybeans to the rest of the World week in and week out. Overall, I look for the soybean market to consolidate and trend sideways.
The May Kansas City wheat scored fresh contracts low’s yesterday. Crop conditions gained 4% in the good/excellent category this past week and traders are looking for another improvement next week. With the U.S. Dollar trading below 100 and wheat futures trading at or near contract lows, I would expect some new export activity from the U.S. soon. Look for the wheat market to consolidate and trend sideways before it starts to move back higher.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 5, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Productio Report and Weekly Crop Progress
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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