April 28, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 9-10c,
🛢️crude oil is down 27-28c,
💲US Dollar is up 15-16 points.
-Good rains across much of the corn and soybean growing areas this weekend.
-Crop progress this afternoon should see corn 25-27% which is well ahead of the 5-year average and soybeans could be 18-20% planted which is also ahead of the 5-year average.
-There have been some rumors of China exempting a few U.S. goods from receiving tariffs, but we have not seen which items are on that list.
-Outside market factors are a little lower to start out the week.
🐂🐻Look for a lower start to corn and soybeans this week.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.73 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.90 3/4 which is the high from April 11th.
December corn – support comes in at $4.49 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.69 1/2 which is high from April 16th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.66 3/4 which is the high from February 21, 2025.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.24 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average and resistance is at $10.37 which is the 200-day moving average.
May Kansas City Wheat – Initial support is at $5.31 which is the low from April 24, 2025. Resistance comes in at $5.56 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Good rains across much of the corn-belt over the weekend has the corn market starting off the week a bit defensive. Planting pace is well ahead of the 5-year average and once we dry out later this week, we should see the planting pace pick up. There are a few areas in the deep south and eastern corn-belt that are too wet and might see some delays, but it is a little early yet in the growing season for the market to react too much. Basis levels for old crop corn are firming up and spreads are steady. I look for corn to have a small correction lower to start the week, then look at the extended weather maps mid-week to get a sense of direction.
May soybean futures finally closed above the 200-day moving average for more than 1-day last week. So far this morning we are still holding above the 200-day moving average. Will we see the Funds step in and start buying and add to their long position? Soybean planting progress could easily be around 20% this week which will put them well ahead of the 5-year average. The U.S. Dollar seems to be stabilizing between 98-100 keeping the U.S. beans somewhat competitive in the World. With the early planting and the fast-planting pace in the U.S., I would expect a few more corn acres unless we stay wet in the U.S. over the next 2-3 weeks.
The wheat market continues to push lower. Traders are expecting a slight increase in crop ratings this afternoon and better ratings again next week. World wheat stocks are still on the tight side, but the World is very content that we will always have a supply of wheat somewhere in the world. A cheaper U.S. Dollar would help support the wheat market but for now it feels like the Funds want to add to their short position and push them positions towards a record short.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
April 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 5, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report and Weekly Crop Progress
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
