June 10, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 20-21c,
💲US Dollar is up 15-15 points.
-The U.S. corn crop is rated 71% good/excellent and the soybeans are rated 68% good/excellent. Both winter wheat and spring wheat crops increased by 2% in the good/excellent category as well.
-Corn and soybean export inspections yesterday were better than expected with wheat coming in below expectations.
-The last half of June looks to dry out and bring warmer than average temps for the corn belt. The big question for traders is this a trend that will continue into July and through pollination or is it just a short-term pattern change?
-Spreads continue to firm for soybeans but corn is backing off a little here today.
-Basis levels on corn and soybeans across the U.S. continues to be steady to firm.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade to today as traders struggle with near a really good forecast but continued strong demand for U.S. corn.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.38 3/4 which is the 20-day moving-day average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.50 1/2 which is the high from June 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
July corn futures continue to push lower. Support at $4.37 failed to hold yesterday as we look for support now at $4.27 1/2. The December corn futures continue to find support at $4.34 1/2. The weather looks good as talk of South American corn crop getting larger has traders feeling confident, we have plenty of corn in the U.S. and the World. Traders are preparing for the June Crop Production report coming out on Thursday this week. The trade is expecting an increase in exports and a reduction in overall carryout number for corn.
Not much has changed for soybean futures since early April. We have been trading between $10.30 and $10.80 basis the July futures and it looks like we will continue that trend until potentially later this month when we get the Planted Acreage report. Traders are looking for a mostly neutral report this Thursday. The Brazilian Real has been getting stronger the past few weeks making the U.S. more competitive for soybean exports.
Winter wheat and spring wheat crop conditions continue to improve. The forecast looks for that trend to continue as harvest starts to ramp up. All indications are for Kansas to have a pretty big wheat harvest this year. July Kansas City wheat futures got a bit over bought here recently. Yesterday’s sell off felt like more of a correction than anything. Look for July Kansas City wheat to find support around the $5.25-$5.30 area.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
June 16, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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