September 30, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4c
🛢️crude oil is up $0.85,
-USDA set to release their Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11:00 AM central here today.
-Average trade estimates for the Grain Stocks report courtesy of Reuters: corn 1.918 billion bushels, soybeans at 324 million bushels, and wheat at 1.872 billion bushels.
-The Funds continue to hold record or near record long position.
-Very wet weather forecasted for Iowa, parts of Missouri and northern parts of Illinois the next 48 hours. Some report up to 5-6 inches are forecasted.
-The U.S. Dollar is down by 20 points this morning but still trading at 101.19.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/mixed trade for Tuesday.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $5.07 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $5.29 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $5.22 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.43 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.56 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.12 which is the 10-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.77 1/2 which is the low from September 14th. Resistance is at $13.35 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.28 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.69 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
It is all about the USDA today and what they will report our September 1st grain stocks will be. Trade estimates are 1.918 billion bushels which continues to imply feed/residual is still running at a pace that is hard to believe and up about 15-16% from 4th quarter last year. Now, we could see the USDA lower last year’s yield and there is some speculation we could see last year’s crop get reduced by about 100 million bushels and then we could see the USDA eventually lower feed/residual by about 100 million bushels which would put 4th quarter feed/residual in line with 4th quarter last year. If there are any surprises today in the report, it should come in the corn market.
On the soybeans, the trade is not looking for any major surprises. Trade estimates are soybean stocks to come in at 324 million bushels which is right in line with previous reports. If we see any changes in the stocks, that change should be very minor. Barring a major surprise in the corn stocks number, soybeans should quickly change its focus on weather and harvest conditions. Another bit of information we should pass along is parts of Brazil could be heating up a bit. It is still early in their growing season but with Super El Nino in effect, this is a story to pay close attention to.
Wheat prices are looking to stabilize. December Kansas City wheat futures have seen a $1.25 selloff in the past month. Today’s report should not contain any surprises in the wheat complex and will be a follower of corn and soybeans. The fighting continues in the Black Sea region and with the lower prices, U.S. wheat could start to become a little more competitive on the World market.
