September 28, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are down 20-21c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c
🛢️crude oil is up $3.85,
-The U.S. and China agree to cut tariffs on certain items that include corn but not soybeans.
-President Trump rejected Iran’s latest offer but expects negotiations to resume this week. The U.S. continues its blockade over Strait of Hormuz.
-The Funds continue to hold record or near record long positions in corn and soybeans.
-President Trump is still considering some sort of diesel export ban.
-Harvest should continue in the east but the west remains wet. There does look to be some relief in sight for the western corn belt in week 2.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade to start out the week.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $5.05 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $5.31 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $5.20 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.45 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.92 which is the low from September 14th. Resistance is at $13.35 1/4 which is the high from September 11th.
March soybeans – Support is at $13.14 3/6 which is the low from September 14th. Resistance is at $13.56 which is the high from September 17th.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.27 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.80 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
After a choppy start to the overnight session, corn futures are being pulled lower by the soybean market. December corn futures are trading below support at $5.26 which has been a good support area for the last 2-3 weeks. Now that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi is behind us, the trade will focus on the Quarterly Grain Stocks report out this Wednesday. The big question for all the traders is how will the USDA deal with the feed/residual number? Harvest progress will continue on in the east, but the west remains wet through most of this week. The week 2 forecasts do bring some relief for the western corn belt. Barring any major bullish surprises from USDA on Wednesday, it feels like December corn wants to head back down and fill the gap at $5.09.
During the meeting between President Trump and President Xi, the 2 countries agreed to lift some of the tariffs on certain goods. For agriculture, China agreed to lift some of the tariffs on corn and other grains but not soybeans. This will continue to make the U.S. a bit uncompetitive to the private sector in China. China has purchased over 1/2 of the 25 MMT of soybeans they agreed to already but the odds of them buying more, looks like a long shot today. Harvest in the U.S. will continue in the east while the west needs to dry out. The general consensus is that soybean yields are better than expected. November soybean futures are back down testing support at the low end of their trading range. The big area of support comes in at $12.92. A close below $12.92 could bring in more selling and potentially push November soybeans down into the $12.60-$12.70 area.
After some progress was made last week on a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, the 2 countries swapped drone strikes against each other over the weekend. There does not look to be any end in sight on the attacks in the Black Sea region. The grains in Russia and Ukraine will be slow to hit the Global trade and that is supportive prices but long term, they will get those bushels out to the World. I look for wheat to follow corn and soybeans this week.
