September 4, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.36-$0.37,
💲US Dollar is up 20 points
-Quiet overnight session with Black Sea and Middle East very quiet.
-China continues to buy more new crop soybeans from the U.S. as we had another flash sale announced yesterday.
-China is rumored to have purchased at least 40% of the 25 MMT they agreed to buy from the U.S.
-Weekly export sales yesterday saw a bunch of bushels getting rolled into the new marketing year which is typical.
-Traders are heading into a 3-day weekend with trade resuming at 7 pm CT Monday night after they close today.
-The Funds are rumored to be net record long in both corn and soybeans.
-U.S. harvest will start ramping up next week with the currently hot and dry forecast for much of the Midwest.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower choppy trade to close out the first week of September.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $5.35 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $5.49 3/4 which is the high from September 2nd.
March corn – Support comes in at $5.25 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.64 which is the high from September 2nd.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.44 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.24 which is the high from September 2nd.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.65 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.43 3/4 which is the high from September 2nd.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.85 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $8.58 1/4 which is the high from September 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn continues to reject the $5.50 area. Corn harvest is ramping up and running 7-10 days ahead of normal. The recent hot and dry temps is really drying down the corn and speeding up harvest. We have heard several reports of guys getting into corn fields and finding out the moisture is drier than they expected. So far yields have been mixed and tough to get a good read on this year’s crop. Funds are estimated to be carrying a record long position and heading into a 3-day weekend, I would think we will be quiet with a little risk getting taken off the market. Next week traders will position themselves for the September 11th Crop Production report and wait to see if the USDA make’s any adjustments to their corn and soybeans yields.
China continues to purchase new crop soybeans from the U.S. on a steady pace. I estimate that China has purchased over 40% of the 25 MMT they agreed to buy. Demand continues to remain strong for U.S. soybeans so unless the USDA increases their yield estimate for this year’s crop, soybean prices are probably headed higher to try and curb some demand. The Funds are estimated to be holding a record long position. I would not be surprised if next Friday in the USDA Crop Production report we see the USDA increase soybean yield a little based off the good rains we got in the U.S. during the month of August. At the end of the day, demand remains strong so until we get to a price to curb demand, breaks in the market will be well supported.
Wheat prices remain very sensitive to the news out of the Black Sea region. President Putin commented the other day a peace deal with Ukraine is still possible and that pushed wheat prices down hard yesterday. Prices did bounce back off the lows as traders want to see real action vs talk. At the end of the day, the issues between Russia and Ukraine remain messy and until we see real action towards a peace deal, wheat prices should remain supported.
