AgMarket.Net Cattle Report 9/1/26

AgMarket.Net Cattle Report 9/1/26

For the week through the close on 9/1/26:

Live Cattle

• Oct: +0.35 at 212.075
• Dec: -0.35 at 213.375
• Feb: -0.60 at 214.925

Feeder Cattle

• Sep: -0.55 at 320.35
• Oct: -1.125 at 315.40
• Nov: -1.40 at 308.525

Market Action

• Markets have been consolidating near recent lows
• Rallies have continued to be sold
• Packer leverage remains strong, cash & futures remain weak
• 9-day moving average key level to watch for fats/feeders – has been resistance
• Weekly continuous LC chart closed below trend support that has held since April 2020
  • Support was at 214.60
  • Weekly close below/resistance at this level is a very ugly sign
  • Weekly close below 214.60 makes $200 nearby futures very probable over next 30-45 days 

Technicals
October Live Cattle 

• Last week’s low at 209.525 CRITICAL SUPPORT
• Today’s low at 210.50 major support as well
• 62% retracement was 215.675. Remains negative below this level
• Full 100% retracement from Nov 25 low to contract high is 196.75
• 9-day moving average at 213.40
  • Close needed above 9-day followed by support to think a short-term low is in
• Packer leverage/weak cash remains a major anchor to futures

September Feeder Cattle

• 62% retracement was 322.925
• Last week’s low at 315.70 CRITICAL SUPPORT
• Full 100% retracement from Nov 25 low to contract high is 289.275
• 12/1 gap open from 314 – 315.70
• Gap is important to watch for hold/close below
• 9-day moving average 322.85
  • Closed needed above 9-day followed by support to think a short-term low is in

Last week’s cash trade:

• Live cash- 219.33 versus 225.04 week before
• Dressed cash- 345.39 versus 355.53 week before
• Negotiated trade- 73,257 versus 79,292 week before
• 1-14-day window- 56,504 head versus 58,409 week before
• 15-30-day window- 16,753 head versus 20,883 week before

Cattle market rundown:

• Feeder cattle index- 329.14
• Daily slaughter- 106,000 head
• WTD slaughter- 207,000 head versus 205,000 LW and 125,000 LY
• Avg carcass wts- 887# versus 885# LW and 866# LY
• Choice cutout- Up 3.93 at 379.75- Tues PM.
• Select cutout- Up 1.96 at 360.45- Tues PM.
• 5-day averages- Choice 381.42. Select 362.08.
• Choice & Higher Grading %- 86.2 versus 86.3 LW

Fundamental Rundown

• Last week’s cash trade was 3-6 lower
• Light cash trade so far in north at 345 this week
• Bias is cash will be lower this week. Basis to October will pressure cash
• Packer leverage/lower futures/lower optimism driving cash lower
• Cash feeders likely remain under pressure
• Douglas, AZ feeder crossings totaled 2,500 head last week
  • 1 New Mexico port to open end of Sep
  • 1 more New Mexico port to open end of Oct
• Cargill Fort Morgan to slowly start production at the end of this week
• USDA announced Rancher First Initiative to Rebuild Great American Beef Herd on Monday
  • Most meaningful piece was BRAND which is an LRP endorsement for heifer retention
    • Insurance industry caught off guard by this and there are more questions than answers today
  • This announcement seems like political pandering from the Administration following the uproar from the cattle industry after the beef import announcement
  • One announcement was Prioritizing American Beef in Federal Spending
    • Aimed towards Government cafeterias and nutrition programs
    • Harvest to Hallways school-food push
    • Government nutrition programs are small in the total beef use category
  • LRP endorsement on bred heifers will be the most awaited for item out of this announcement
• Major fundamental headwinds moving forward:
  • Packer leverage
  • Lower cash
  • Heavy futures
  • Record beef imports
  • Mexican feeder imports will only continue to increase

Have a good evening,