July 31, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 6-7,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.42-$0.43,
💲US Dollar is up 29 points
-Good rains swept across the Dakotas last night and are pushing across Minnesota and Iowa this morning.
-Rains were as expected and look to bring good rain across much of the corn belt the next 2 days.
-Weekly export sales were at the top end of expectations for corn, above expectations on soybeans and at the low end for wheat.
-China continues to be quiet this week on buying more U.S. soybeans.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy to lower trade to end the week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.40 which is 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.68 which is the low from July 24th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.92 which is the high from July 24th.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.77 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 1/2 which is a from July 24th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.76 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.56 1/2 which is the high from July 24th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.08 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.77 1/2 which is the contract high.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are a little lower to start out Friday. Rains swept across the Dakotas last night and are currently pushing across Minnesota and Iowa this morning. I would say the rain totals that I have seen, the system is as expected. For me, the corn market simply ran out of bullish news to trade on, so we are correcting a bit in here. In a Bull market, we need to feed the Bull fresh new news every day, or we take the risk of a correction. We still have a lot of volatility ahead in my mind. Most traders feel the U.S. is closer to a 180 bushel per acre yield than a 183 bushel per acre. If the U.S. ends up closer to that 180 bushel per acre or less, then we will head back higher. Seasonally speaking, a pullback going into the middle of August is pretty normal. The Funds are probably still holding a net long position but will wait to see how the rest of August weather plays out before they decide to add to the net long or maybe go net short.
On the soybeans, we did not have China in here this week buying soybeans. Some of this has to deal with the increase in tariffs but I also feel it had to deal with the weather. The U.S. soybean crop is still rated above the 5-year average on crop conditions and if August weather turns out like the first 2-weeks are expected, we could hit the 53 bushel per acre or higher. November soybeans have corrected about 50% of their rally from June 30th and seem to be finding support. Without any fresh new news to trade on, I look for November soybeans to consolidate between $11.70 and $12.00.
Wheat prices failed to hold their strength yesterday. If you are a Bull in the wheat market, yesterday was concerning. After posting near 30c higher move and to close higher by 5 cents is troubling. The wheat market should stay supported until the Black Sea regions get back to some sort of normal trade flow but on the bearish side, Russia will be aggressive to sell their wheat and generate some cash. The Funds are holding a small net long position and will likely hold that until we figure out if Russia and Ukraine work out some sort of deal to allow grain through the Black Sea or if they will continue to strike each other’s ports.
