July 30, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 26-27,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.17-$0.18,
💲US Dollar is down 10 points
-Tensions in the Black Sea region escalate as Russia and Ukraine exchange missile attacks, keeping that region basically shut off for business.
-Corn and soybeans are getting a small bounce off the wheat led rally.
-Weather maps continue to add in rain for much of the corn belt and extending it out into the 2-week forecast.
-Weekly export sales report will be out this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 800,000-1,600,000 metric tons, soybeans 500,000-1,300,000 metric tons, wheat 200,000-500,000 metric tons and soybean meal 200,000-550,000 metric tons.
-November soybeans are finding support at the 50% retracement of the $11.21 3/4 to $12.56 1/4 rally while December corn is finding support at the 200-day moving average.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy to higher trade for Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.46 1/4 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.68 which is the low from July 24th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.66 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.92 which is the high from July 24th.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.77 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 1/2 which is a from July 24th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.74 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.56 1/2 which is the high from July 24th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.04 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.77 1/2 which is the contract high.
Where do we go from Here:
It is all about the money flow right now. Traders and Fund managers all use their own weather models and yield models. With those different models come differences of opinions. Some of the yield models the Fund managers use may not take into consideration the weekly crop ratings so they might still be projecting a trendline corn yield 184-185 bushels per acre or higher while others might be thinking 180-183 bushels per acre. We still have a lot of unknowns out in the marketplace here today and the next 30-45 days are sure to remain volatile. Yes, the weather looks to improve but there are definitely areas of the corn belt that have a reduced crop. Corn on its own right now is looking for a fresh new story to talk about so without that, it is a follower and wheat is up strong as tensions in the Black Sea region escalate. I still look for December corn to consolidate here a bit between $4.70 and $4.90.
The Funds were in sell mode yesterday in the soy complex. Even with crude oil higher soybean oil could not muster up a rally and that is a big blow to the soy complex. As of now the early August rains are forecasted and the market is pricing that in. China has been very quiet this week on buying new crop soybeans from the U.S. due to the increased tariffs but also with the improving weather forecasts and the market heading lower, they might want to be patient as well. November soybeans have given back 50% of their recent rally from June 30th until last week and seem to be finding some support. If the weather forecasts do hold true and provide the U.S. with good rains over the next 2 weeks, then we could see soybeans push lower. If the rains are a bust or push further east, then we could see the market add the premium back in quickly.
Wheat prices are surging higher this morning as tensions in the Black Sea region escalate. After a few quiet days between Russia and Ukraine, they started shooting missiles at each other again and bringing into question how reliable the Black Sea will be to ship any grain in the near future. The Funds still have room to add to their long position if they would like and they seem to be buying this morning. In the big picture this is friendly to the market short term but long term those 2 countries will get back to exporting their wheat and other grains to the World.
