July 29, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 11-12c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is up $2.85-$2.86,
💲US Dollar is down 4 points
-The FOMC will announce their plans on interest rates today. Odds are suggesting they leave rates unchanged while President Trump is urging the for a 25 pt decrease.
-Crude oil is higher by 4% as Iran carried out strikes against U.S. forces in Jordan. All strikes were intercepted.
-Weather models are still agreeing on good rains to sweep across the corn belt starting Thursday bring some much-needed rain to some of the driest parts of the corn belt.
-China has been quiet this week on purchasing anymore new crop soybeans from the U.S.
-Farmer selling remains good in the eastern part of the U.S. where their crop is in better condition.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy to lower trade for Wednesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.54 1/2 which is 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.68 which is the low from July 24th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.74 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.92 which is the high from July 24th.
1/4August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.99 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 1/2 which is a from July 24th.
November soybeans – Support is at $12.03 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.56 1/2 which is the high from July 24th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.98 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.35 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices clawed back about 1/2 of what they lost on Monday. The drop in crop condition scores has the market buzzing about the national corn yield being lower than USDA’s 183 bushel per acre estimate. The western part of the corn belt saw the biggest declines and with continued hot and dry weather in the west, odds are good we see those conditions change. Now the weather forecasts look to change and be much cooler with good amount of rain pushing through much of the corn belt starting tomorrow. So, the battle begins on wondering how much damage was done and if we have ideal weather to finish the crop, can we still achieve a national yield of 183? There is no doubt in my mind we will still remain very volatile over the next 30-45 days. With grain prices not following along with the higher energy prices this morning, this is a bit concerning for the Bulls. I look for December corn to consolidate in a range between $4.70 and $4.90 until we get a better feel on the size of this year’s crop.
For soybeans, it all comes down to August weather. The weather forecasts look to bring much of the U.S. good rains while cooling off a bit as well. This is the recipe for a big soybean crop. My question, was there too much damage already done in the western corn belt to be able to bounce back enough to produce a 53 bushel per acre soybean crop? Today, the market seems content that any damage is able to be made up from the better areas of the corn belt. The November soybean contract seems content on filling the gap left from Sunday night in which we need to trade down to $12.04 to fill the gap. Just as the weather maps changed over the week to cool and wet, they could easily turn back hot and dry. I look for soybean market to consolidate here with November soybeans trading between $12.00 and $12.50.
Russia and Ukraine continue to carry out more strikes against each other, but the wheat market does not seem to care. Wheat has fallen back into being a follower. Higher energy prices are not enough to push corn and soybean prices higher this morning, so wheat prices are a touch lower. September Kansas City wheat looks to consolidate between $7.20 and $7.40.
