July 21, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.67-$0.68,
💲US Dollar is down 2 points
-Weekly crop conditions saw corn ratings slip just 1% out of “good/excellent” while soybeans saw a 1% increase in their “good/excellent” ratings.
-For the week, 67% of the corn crop is rated “good/excellent” while soybeans are at 66% “good/excellent.” Trade was looking for a 2-3% drop in each crop.
-Weekly export inspections saw another impressive week for corn at 61 million bushels while soybeans were below trade estimates, coming in at 10.9 million bushels.
-President Trump is weighing out another potential ceasefire with Iran and to open up the Strait of Hormuz again.
-The U.S. weather looks to cool down and most of the rains will stay in the eastern corn belt. We are seeing a little more rain in forecasts for the western corn belt but not until next week.
🐂🐻 Look for mixed/choppy trade today as traders weigh out the better-than-expected condition scores.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.41 3/4 which is 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.52 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.63 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.76 which is the 62% retracement of the $5.06 1/2 to $4.25 3/4 selloff.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $12.00 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is a triple top.
November soybeans – Support is at $12.00 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.32 which is the high from July 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.93 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.58 3/4 which is the high from May 19th.
Where do we go from Here:
The trade was looking for the weekly corn crop ratings to decline more than 1% last week. Traders will be anxious to see if crop ratings decline next week as the hot and dry weather this past 7+ days should have taken a toll on some of the crop. Demand remains very strong and very good chances we see the USDA increase their export projections again for this year. The Funds have a small net long position and seem to be patient to add to that position until we see how the corn comes through pollination. Odds are increasing our national yield estimate of 183 bushels per acre could be a bit too strong. I look for corn to be well supported. Between strong demand and the issues in the Black Sea, corn should have good support on any break.
The soybean market remains very volatile and rightfully so. Will the weather continue to trend warm and dry as we get into August? China has been a pretty steady buyer of new crop soybeans from the U.S. Some reports are that they have purchased up to 4.6 MMT of their projected 25MMT. China is on pace to have the entire 25 MMT on the book by the end of calendar year 2026. Combine the export demand with the RVO policy in the U.S. we need to have good weather to finish these soybeans this year. November soybeans are finding a little resistance in the $12.30 area, and it would not surprise me to see a correction before breaking out to the upside. The Funds are holding a sizeable net long position and will defend that position on any breaks.
Wheat futures have seemed to run out of gas up here. We still see the European wheat crop getting smaller, but Russia has a huge crop. The Russia/Ukraine conflict lately is a story we need to keep our eyes on. If the 2 countries keep shooting each other vessels, this could increase some wheat demand out of the U.S. in the short term. However, the Russian wheat supply isn’t going anywhere and once things settle down, Russia will be aggressive to sell their wheat to generate some cash flow. Wheat futures on their own should see a pullback in prices but if corn and soybeans were to push higher, wheat will likely follow them.
