July 16, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.03-$0.04,
💲US Dollar is up 6 points
-Ukraine has reportedly hit 119 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait making it unnavigable. Up to 30% of Russia’s grain export go through this area.
-Russia retaliated back hitting Ukraine’s Odessa Port causing concern over Ukraine’s ability to export grain as well.
-Chian was back in buying an additional 4-5 cargoes of new crop soybeans yesterday.
-NOPA crush out yesterday come in at 214.3 million bushels vs trade estimates of 204 million bushels.
-Weather leans mixed. Cooler temps are starting to arrive with increased chances of rain in the east while the western corn belt, where the heat was, should remain fairly dry.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 800,000-2,100,000 metric tons, soybeans 1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 275,000-600,000 matric tons and soybean meal 150,000-650,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade on Thursday as we carryover strength from Wednesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.38 3/4 which is 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.52 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.59 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.73 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.73 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.89 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.70 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.58 3/4 which is the high from May 19th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are starting out this morning a little higher as they carry over some strength from yesterday. With Russia and Ukraine firing missiles upon each other and knocking out their main export ports respectively, traders are concerned about trade flow coming out of those areas. With Russia hitting the Odessa port, knocking it offline for the time being and putting in question grain flow through the Black Sea, the U.S. could see an uptick in export business when our demand is already strong. December corn is pushing into a lot of resistance in the $4.70-$4.75 area as the weather looks to moderate. We will need to keep feeding the bull some friendly news, or else we could see a pullback. The Funds are estimated to have a small, long position of about 30,000-40,000 contracts so they are neutral and could go in either direction. For now, I think December corn will find resistance as we hit the $4.75 area and wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction, all while maintaining the uptrend.
Soybeans were riding the coattails of wheat yesterday when NOPA released their crush for the month of June. The crush number come in at 214.3 million bushels when traders were estimating 204 million bushels. This helped push soybeans up double digits and settled about 9-10 cents higher. Crush demand continues to be very strong and running very close to the USDA’s projection. The Funds continue to carry a net long position of about 80,000-90,000 contracts long soybeans. November soybean futures did manage to close above $12.00 yesterday but so far, we are just not getting a big follow through. It looks like we will need to take out the high at $12.14 in order to see more money flow into the soybean complex. Fundamentally, the USDA has been spot on the soybean demand all year. Traders are simply waiting to see what the August weather might have in store for the U.S.
Wheat futures are a little higher today after Kansas City wheat pushed up limit yesterday and closed 42 cents higher. The money is flowing into the wheat complex. With the Kerch Strait unnavigable currently, Russia stands to miss out on a significant amount of export business. Now, Russia’s wheat crop was very big this year, so those bushels are not going away. They might not be able to sell/ship them in the near future, but they will eventually. So long term, that will hang over the wheat market. For now, the money is pouring in the wheat complex and the trend is up. The next area of major resistance is contract highs.
