July 14, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is up $2.48-$2.49,
💲US Dollar is down 16 points
-Weekly crop conditions saw both corn and soybeans gain 1% in the “good/excellent” category this week after some really good weather across the U.S. last week.
-Trade estimates were looking for a slight decline in ratings on corn and soybeans.
-The U.S. carried out strikes against Iran again last night. Crude oil is up another 3% and back trading over $80.
-Weekly export inspections saw another strong week for corn sales, above expectations, while soybeans came in just under trade expectations.
-Weekly export inspections on corn are running 16% ahead of the USDA’s annual estimate while soybeans are running 1-2% ahead of USDA annual estimate.
-Extended weather forecasts continue to bring in much cooler temps but much of the U.S. looks to be on the drier side through the end of July.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade today for turn-around Tuesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.27 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.47 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.46 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.65 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.72 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.69 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.54 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.91 1/2 which is the low from May 15th.
Where do we go from Here:
After corn gapped higher on Sunday night, that gap is already filled. Yesterday’s close was not the best for the Bulls in the corn market. The weather continues to look hot and dry this week but by the weekend, cooler temps will show up but the U.S. will remain on the drier side through the end of July. We saw crop conditions across the U.S. increase 1% in the “good/excellent” category which did noy surprise me. The weather last week was nearly ideal, and the heat did not show up until this past weekend. The Funds remain mostly neutral, waiting to see how the rest of July’s weather plays out. December corn futures found some resistance as we pushed close to $4.70. I look for December corn to consolidate a bit between $4.40 and $4.70 until the market gets a better feel for the size of the U.S. corn crop.
Soybean prices were mostly held up yesterday by soybean oil catching support from stronger crude oil prices. We did have another flash sale to China yesterday for some new crop soybeans. This puts them up to about 1 MMT in new crop soybean purchases with 24 MMT yet to go. There has been some speculation that China will have most, if not all, of the 25 MMT on the books with the U.S. by the end of the calendar year. Typically, we do see China buy some beans throughout the summer and then ramp up purchases early in the fall. November soybeans tried to hold above $12.00 again yesterday but failed to close above $12.00. The $12.00 is getting to be the battle ground. If we get some hot and dry weather in August, that could be enough to push soybeans to close above the $12.00 level. The Funds are still holding a modestly long position and look to until we get closer to the August weather.
Wheat prices were under some pressure yesterday. After Russia/Ukraine exchanged some missile attacks late last week with a couple key port’s getting shut down, Russia was really aggressive to book some export business with Saudia Arabia. This sent U.S. wheat prices lower and just shows that just when a person can feel good about wheat prices, they take a step back. After the outside day lower in September Kansas City wheat, I look for a pullback of about 50% of the recent 80 cent rally we saw.
