July 6, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 12-13c,
🌱soybeans are up 31-32c,
🍞wheat is up 7-8,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.26-$0.27,
💲US Dollar is up 26 points
-The heat dome moves back into the corn belt later this week.
-France crop ratings continue to drop hard. France’s corn conditions have dropped 26% out of the “good/excellent” category in last 2 weeks.
-The hot and dry conditions continue for Europe, mainly France, for the next 7-10 days.
-CFTC will release their COT report this afternoon since the markets were close on Friday.
-U.S. crop condition scores look to be steady this week, but the forecasts suggest they could start to decline.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade to start out the first full week of trading in July.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.06 1/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance is at $4.32 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.25 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $4.56 1/4 which is the 38% retracement back up from the $5.06 1/2 to $4.26 3/4 selloff.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.06 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance is at $11.69 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.18 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.79 which is the 62% retracement back up from the $12.14 to $11.21 3/4 selloff.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.10 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $6.49 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Here comes the heat! After heading into the weekend last Thursday with the weather maps looking a bit cooler with good rains, the heat dome looks to set up across the U.S. and right over the corn belt bringing some hot and drier conditions. The forecasts do not look completely dry but with temps in the 90’s to maybe 100’s, we are going to need to catch some rains to help this crop out. Conditions across the U.S. are still pretty good but with pollination starting to take place, the Funds are putting some risk premium back into the market. After the USDA lowered their Grain Stocks last week by 113 million bushels, a smaller yield to the U.S. corn starts to make the carryout in the U.S. tight. Keep a close eye on the weather maps and as they change, so will our markets.
On the soybeans, prices are surging higher with prices up by 30+ cents. It simply boils down to weather here in the U.S. Yes, we have another 665,000 soybean acres planted this year, but when you look at the U.S. balance sheet, the USDA is using a trendline yield of 53 bushels per acre. So, leaving demand alone as the USDA is projecting for the 2026/27 marketing year, we should have about 340-350 million bushel ending stocks. Just 1 bushel per acre less in yield and our carryout in the U.S. would be close to 250-260 million bushels. With the heat dome setting up across the U.S. this week and next week, the market needs to add in more risk premium. A 52 bushel an acre U.S. yield would be the 2nd largest in the past 10 years, just below last year’s 53 bushel per acre. So, what if August is hot and on the dry side in the U.S.? I look for November soybeans to test the $12.00 area and maybe even the contract high of $12.14.
Wheat prices are simply a follower here today. Winter wheat harvest in on the downhill side and spring wheat harvest is a good 4-6 weeks away yet. September Kansas City wheat prices have had a nice recovery and are hitting a little resistance at the 100-day moving average. If September Kansas City wheat futures can push through the 100-day moving average, then resistance would be at the 50-day moving average which would also be at the upper end of a trading channel they were trading in earlier this year.
