July 1, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.56-$0.57,
💲US Dollar is up 21 points
-The USDA reported a few more corn acres along with an increase in soybeans acres that the market was expecting.
-The Quarterly Grain stocks showed a significant build on corn stocks, but that number was still about 113 million bushels less than the trade was expecting.
-Wheat harvested acres this year is at a 149-year low, coming in at 32.1 million acres.
-Trade talks between the U.S./Mexico/Canada will begin today.
-The U.S. weather looks to cool down and bring back an active weather pattern next week.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/higher trade here for Wednesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.06 1/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance is at $4.23 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.25 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $4.42 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.06 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance is at $11.34 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.18 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.52 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.10 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $6.35 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA refused to make any adjustments to their feed and residual number. So, we will wait for the September 30th Quarterly Stocks to see how the USDA will handle this big increase in feed usage projected this year. Odds are last year’s crop was overstated and if that is the case, it could be overstated by about 2 bushels per acre. Regardless, demand for U.S. corn remains very strong. Now with the Planted Acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks report behind us, I feel the trade will shift its focus back to the U.S. weather. The report numbers didn’t give us any major bearish surprise, so I look for corn to stabilize here a bit before possibly turning lower again barring the weather does in fact turn cooler and bring in good rains next week. With 95.3 million corn acres and the crop conditions where they are at, it looks like the U.S. is heading down the road of producing their 2nd largest corn crop.
The soybeans saw an uptick in planted acres, but that number was right in line with trade estimates. We also saw a 15 million bushels build in soybean stocks, and the soybeans were still able to close out the day higher. I feel this was because the market so prepared and already had a negative number priced in for the report. Overall, the soybean numbers were not terribly bearish but with a few more soybean acres, the U.S. doesn’t need quite as big of a trendline yield this year. China will be back in buying soybeans from the U.S. this year so demand will see a pickup this year, so we still need to have good August weather to ensure the U.S. does produce a 4.4 billion crop or bigger. If we fall below that production number, soybeans get tight in the U.S.
The wheat market had the biggest surprise I thought. Total wheat acres coming in down another 1 million acres and with the higher percent of abandonment this year, the U.S. is projected to harvest only 32.1 million wheat acres. This is the smallest harvested wheat number in 149 years. Add on top of this the heat and dry conditions in France and this has the wheat market pushing higher. Domestic supplies will be tight in the U.S. and that should help push wheat futures a bit higher.
