June 30, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 2-4,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.28-$0.29,
💲US Dollar is up 25 points
-The USDA Planted Acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks report due out at 11:00 am CT.
-Trade estimates are looking for 94.9 million corn acres, 85.3 million soybean acres and 43.8 million all wheat acres.
-For the Quarterly Grain stocks, trade estimates are looking for a record amount of corn at 5.4 billion bushels, 1.046 billion soybean bushels and 934 million wheat bushels.
-Crop condition scores out yesterday afternoon saw corn and soybeans both drop 1% out of the “good/excellent” category but still rated relatively high.
-The Funds supposedly sold about 20,000 contracts of corn and sold about 16,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday.
-The U.S. weather continues to look hot for this week before cooling down along with decent chances of rain.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/mixed trade ahead of the USDA report and then we will trade the report number at 11:00 am.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $3.98 1/2 which is the low from June 29th. Resistance is at $4.16 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.27 1/4 which is the low from June 29th. Resistance comes in at $4.43 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.02 1/2 which is the low from June 15th. Resistance is at $11.23 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.18 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.44 which is the 20-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.97 3/4 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance comes in at $6.26 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Today is going to be all about the USDA Planted Acres report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Trade estimates are looking for a small reduction in corn acres from the March planting intentions. Main reason for the decline in acres is high fertilizer prices. Now, typically we see the corn acres increase from the March intentions. The big number to watch will be the Quarterly Grain Stocks number. Traders are looking for a record amount of corn stocks on hand, but we still have the lingering question about the Feed/Residual. Will the USDA make some adjustments on the Feed/Residual number this month or will they kick the can down the road until September? After’s yesterday’s action, I feel the market is bracing themselves for a negative USDA report today but with the U.S. corn off to a good start and looking good, the mentality is the crop is getting bigger and not smaller so rallies will be hard to come by.
On the soybeans, if the corn acres are expected to decline, then that suggests the soybean acres should see an increase. Traders are looking for about a 650,000 acre increase in soybean acres from the March intentions. There are a few estimates out there suggesting we could see well over a million more soybean acres as this past spring, high fertilizer prices could have forced farmers to plant more soybean acres. My feeling is farmers now days still like planting and growing corn, so I think corn acres could be a bit higher than the average estimates. The soybean stock number is expected to come in about 1.046 billion bushels which is about 38 million more than last year, but that number isn’t bad considering China wasn’t buying as many soybeans from the U.S. as normal. Soybean prices are still carrying some risk premium in their prices but until we can be confident about the August weather, I think soybeans will stay supported.
The wheat prices tried their best to rally yesterday. Very hot and dry conditions over in France is helping support wheat prices across the World. With the crop in France getting smaller, could we see a little uptick in business in the U.S.? Today’s report should not give us much for surprises. I think we could see spring wheat acres lower simply as the high fertilize situation this spring could have pushed those acres to canola or sunflowers. Wheat prices will take its lead from corn and soybeans today and trade accordingly.
