June 25, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.82-$0.84,
💲US Dollar is down 3 points
-Grain prices are mixed to start out on Thursday.
-The S&P is pushing back towards 7500 again after a 3-day selloff.
-Crude oil futures are trading below $70 for the first time since March 5th.
-The U.S. weather looks to turn hot next week but there is decent chance of rain. This forecast will be good for crop development.
-Weekly ethanol report showed stocks were up and production was down. Traders are looking for ethanol crush number to be lowered in future USDA reports.
-Export sales will be released this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 900,000-2,300,000 metric tons, soybeans 550,000-1,500,000 metric tons, wheat 250,000-600,000 metric tons and soybean meal 200,000-550,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/mixed trade for Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.06 1/4 which is the low from June 15th. Resistance is at $4.22 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/4 which is the low from June 15th. Resistance comes in at $4.49 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.02 1/2 which is the low from June 15th. Resistance is at $11.38 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.16 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.49 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.14 which is the low from June 5th. Resistance comes in at $6.33 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market continues to struggle to find support. What looked to be a slightly positive trading day turned into a 2-3 cent selloff. Yesterday’s ethanol data was a bit neutral to bearish and that started the market to slide lower. The weather forecast looks to bring in some heat next week and initially that will be supportive to crop development but if that heat continues and we see some drier conditions with that heat, then the market could add some risk premium. Traders are getting ready for the USDA report next week. Average trade estimates are looking for corn acres to be down about 350,000. I look for another quiet choppy trade here today.
The soybeans saw a little bigger selloff yesterday as Funds continue to selloff their long positions. When we look at the soybean complex, it just feels the soybeans have more potential downside risk. The Fundamentals are worse than corn on the World front but yet we still need to grow this crop in the U.S. Even a slight yield drop could make things a bit tight domestically in the U.S. Traders are looking for about a 670,000 acre increase from the March Planting Intentions so that would help ease traders’ minds of any potential yield loss. It will still come down to the weather in August. As we get within 30-days of August and if the weather maps look good, I would suspect we could see soybeans selloff more and potentially drop below $11.00 on the November contract.
July Kansas City wheat continues to hold support at the $6.14 level. There is a potential head and shoulders chart formation on the July Kansas City wheat contract, and we don’t want to take out the neckline support. There is a gap on the July Kansas City chart between $6.09 3/4 and $6.11 3/4 that could be a focus area. Traders are looking for a slight reduction in spring wheat acres next week in the June 30th report but other than that, wheat will continue to follow corn and soybeans.
