June 12, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4,
🛢️crude oil is down $3.65-$3.66,
💲US Dollar is down 19 points
-The June USDA Crop Production report was pretty neutral.
-Biggest surprise in the USDA report was an increase in South American corn production and an increase to World ending stocks.
-Trade talks between the U.S. and Mexico seem to be a bit on edge this week.
-President Trump said a deal with Iran in principle has been agreed on and could be signed by this weekend.
-Commodity funds seem to want to go short corn and get back to neutral on soybeans.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed to lower trade to finish out the week.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.05 1/4 which is the gap on the continuation chart from September 12, 2025. Resistance is at $4.23 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.37 1/2 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $4.51 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.11 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $11.37 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.14 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.45 which is the 100-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.27 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.61 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA did not give the market any surprises in the June Crop Production report. Yes, they raised their estimates for both Argentina and Brazil corn crop but that was to be expected. The majority, if not all private analysts have priced in a bigger corn crop for a couple months and the USDA was slow to raise their estimates. It feels like the market is taking some premium out of the market as talks between the U.S. and Mexico on a new trade deal have seem to hit a few bumps in the road. I feel at the end of the day, we will work out a deal with Mexico that will benefit the U.S. better in the long run. For now, the Funds seem to want to start to build a short position in preparation for the June 30th report.
On the soybeans, the June Crop production report was a punt. We saw just a couple minor adjustments in the demand picture but those offset each other, keeping ending stocks unchanged in the U.S. and up slightly on the World ending stocks. The Funds are still holding a decent sized long position in soybeans, and the products so there still feels like the soy complex is carrying more risk to the downside today than the corn market. The weather in the U.S. looks good for crop development but it the crop size feels like more of a trendline crop vs that bin buster a few are talking about. We all know the soybean crop is made or lost in August so it feels like the Funds could hold on to that long position until we get close to August weather.
July Kansas City wheat was able to close above the 10-day moving average yesterday. In a market that has been beat up as bad as wheat has, we need to take baby steps to get back to higher prices. So far this week we have consolidated the trade and are now currently trading above the 10-day moving average. The USDA did lower all wheat yield by 0.5 bushels per acres, stemming from the hard red winter wheat yield getting cut in Kansas by 2 bushels per acre. The old saying, “big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller” seems to be playing out to the downside. I look for wheat to continue to consolidate here a bit before pushing a bit higher.
