June 11, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.71-$0.72,
💲US Dollar is up 15 points
-The USDA will release their June Crop Production report this morning at 11:00 am CT.
-Trade estimates are only looking for minor adjustments in the demand picture for both old crop and new crop ending stocks.
-The potential biggest changes could be the USDA increasing their estimate of Brazil and Argentina corn production.
-The U.S. Dollar is back trading over 100 this morning.
The week 1 forecasts look to be cooler and mostly dry while the week 2 forecasts bring in some good, widespread rains across the U.S.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade today for Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.05 1/4 which is the gap on the continuation chart from September 12, 2025. Resistance is at $4.32 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.40 3/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $4.59 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.11 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $11.37 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.13 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.43 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.25 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.61 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are a little lower to start out the day. The past few days we have seen the corn market try to stabilize. The USDA will release their estimates for the June Crop Production report and there should only be a few minor changes to the demand. Ethanol crush is running a bit slower than the pace needed so there is speculation we could see a reduction to ethanol demand. On the flip side, the export demand is still running well ahead of the paced needed to achieve the USDA estimate of 3.3 billion bushels. So, we could see a reduction in demand via ethanol but an increase in demand on exports. With all that said, the trade is looking for less than a 25 million bushels adjustment in ending stocks. The bigger number to watch is what will the USDA use for a production estimate for Brazil and Argentina corn crop? The USDA has been slow to increase their estimate so this could be the month we see USDA raise their South American corn estimate.
The soybean market is mixed this morning with spreads weakening again. This week, the July contract has been struggling to find much support. For the report today, much like the corn numbers, traders are not looking for any surprises on the soybean numbers. Soybean crush continues to be very strong and that should help offset a reduction in demand on the export side of things. Overall, the trade is looking for less than a 10 million bushels adjustment to the ending stocks for both marketing years. The South American soybean crop is pretty well wrapped up so I don’t think we will see the USDA make any significant adjustments there.
The wheat market is the one commodity we might see a surprise today in the report. Winter wheat harvest is moving along but we have not heard much about the yields. Could the USDA decrease yields or increase the abandonment of harvested acres? In the report today, the wheat complex has the biggest unknown questions. July Kansas City wheat seems to have found resistance in the $6.40 area which is where the 10-day moving average is at as well. Barring any major surprises from the USDA today, I look for wheat futures to continue to consolidate.
