May 18, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 13-14c,
🌱soybeans are up 24-25c,
🍞wheat is up 12-14,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.28-$1.29,
💲US Dollar is down 9 points
-Headlines over the weekend that China is looking to buy up to $17 billion of U.S. agriculture goods for each of the next 3 years. There is some talk that this is in addition of them committing to buy 25 MMT of soybeans annually from the U.S. for the next 3 years as well.
-Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated.
-Good rains swept across a portion of the corn belt over the weekend with more rain coming the next 2 weeks. Temps will be cooler than normal the first few days this week and then turning slightly above normal. U.S. crop should be off to a good start.
-Crop planting progress made some good progress last week. Look for corn to be around 80% planted and soybeans 65% planted, both ahead of the 5- year pace.
-The Funds are still net long about 299483 contracts of corn and net long 214,815 contracts of soybeans.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade to start out this week.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.55 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.87 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.73 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.06 1/2 which is the high from May 13th.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.67 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $12.35 which is the high from May 13th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.62 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is our high from May 13th.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.88 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.50 which is the high from the week of May 13th.
Where do we go from Here:
Grain prices are off to the races here to start out the new week. Headlines out over the weekend suggest that China is looking to buy a substantial amount of U.S. ag products each year over the next 3-years. Now, the specifics are still unknown on the amount of each product, but we have heard the total dollar amount could be up to $17 billion annually. After the sell off last week and a correction that got a bit over extended, corn prices are pushing back up into the middle of the trading range we have been in for the past 3+ months. Planting progress this afternoon could see corn around 80% planted and with some good rains sweeping across the U.S. this weekend and more to come the next 2 weeks, the U.S. corn and soybean crop should be off to a good start.
The big question swirling around the headline of China buying $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products is whether that dollar figure includes soybeans or not? The talk right now is that the $17 billions of agricultural products is in addition to the 25 MMT of soybeans China has already committed to buying. So, if that is the case then that opens up the door to see substantial purchases of soy products, corn, ethanol, sorghum, etc. This should keep the demand very strong for U.S. agricultural products and in great shape for the next 3 years. This type of demand puts some added pressure on the U.S. to ensure that we grow a crop this year so being only May 18th, I know the crop is off to a decent start, we still have a lot of weather to get through yet. The Funds are still holding a big, long position and I don’t expect them to bail out of that anytime soon.
Wheat prices are also surging higher this morning. July Kansas City wheat is back trading above $7.00. The winter wheat crop should be stabilizing but the damage has been done for now. The big question for the traders is whether or not the USDA made too big of production cuts on this year wheat crop or do we still see that crop get smaller?
