May 15, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 4-c,
🛢️crude oil is up $3.98-$3.99,
💲US Dollar is up 38 points
-China has agreed to buy 25 MMT of soybeans from the U.S., each year for the next 3 years. As of now, no more than that amount.
-President Trump wrapped up his meeting with President Xi in China and said the meetings went very well.
-U.S. Trade Representative Greer said he anticipates China to commit billions to U.S. ag purchases but there were no specific details.
-Weekly exports were disappointing for all 3 grains yesterday.
-The U.S. weather looks to bring some much-needed rain across a good portion of the corn belt as temps start to warm up the middle of next week.
-Planting progress next week should show the U.S. still ahead of the 5-year average pace. I look for corn to be close to 80% planted and soybeans 70% planted.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade to close out the week.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.65 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.87 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.86 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.06 1/2 which is the high from May 13th.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.92 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.77 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is our high from May 13th.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.96 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.50 which is the high from the week of May 13th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices had a risk off day yesterday. Traders were expecting some big announcements from the meeting between President Trump and President Xi but like normal, we did not get much for specific details other than the relationship between the U.S. and China continues to improve. The U.S. had a great week of planting with many areas wrapping up and needing some rain. The forecasts look to bring some widespread rains across the bulk of the U.S. growing area so the 2026 crop should be off to a pretty good start. Now, the meeting between President Trump and President Xi lacked specific details but it was still constructive. Our fundamentals in the U.S. did not change so we still need to have a good growing season. Most times around these big events like the meeting between President Trump and President Xi, the market gets impatient and want specific details now. These deals take time, so we have some money heading to the sidelines for now.
Soybean prices had a rough day yesterday with July down 36 cents and November soybeans down 24 cents. The big reason for the selloff? China said they will buy the 25 MMT per year for the next 3-years. The trade was expecting or hoping for China to say they will buy more and that did not happen. So, the selling started and down we went. There were rumors earlier in the week that China might buy up to 40 MMT of soybeans each year but they stuck to the 25 MMT they committed to a few months back. I find it interesting in that if China would say they would buy upwards of 40 MMT of soybeans, that would essentially run the U.S. out of soybeans. Our demand is very robust and with the current balance sheet, we are looking to have the ending stocks at 310 million bushels. So, any uptick in demand or even a slightly lower yield, domestic supplies of soybeans could get very tight.
Wheat prices were mainly along for the ride yesterday. I look for crop conditions to stabilize next week but the U.S. crop has already been damaged. There are some questions about spring wheat acres in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana and that they might be on the decline, but we won’t get those numbers until June 30th. For the time, it feels like we have our high in the wheat market.
