May 12, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 9-13c,
🛢️crude oil is up $3.05-$3.06,
💲US Dollar is up 28 points
-Tensions between U.S and Iran remain elevated.
-Crude oil back trading above $100 per barrel.
-Crop progress saw corn and soybeans continue to run ahead of the 5-year planting pace.
-Winter wheat crop ratings lost 3% in the “Good/Excellent” category, more than traders were expecting.
-USDA Crop Production report due out this morning at 11:00 am CT. Big numbers will be carryout estimates for the 2026-27 crop year. Estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 1.904 billion bushels, soybeans 354 million bushels and wheat 818 million bushels.
🐂🐻 Look for mixed trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.69 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.87 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.89 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.05 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $12.05 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.26 1/4 which is the high from May 4th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.84 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.01 1/ which is a double top.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.76 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.18 1/2 which is the high from April 29th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn planting progress continues to run slightly ahead of the 5-year pace. Warmer temps this week and into next week should help push the emergence along better than we have seen but overall, the crop is getting put into the ground in good conditions. The USDA will give us their first look at the 2026-27 crop year balance sheet. Odds are pretty high that the USDA will use their yield from the February Ag Outlook which came in at 183 bushels per acre. For me, I will be anxious to see what the USDA uses for demand for the 2026-27 marketing year on corn and what their ending stocks will be for the marketing year. Estimates are coming in at 1.904 billion bushels which is lower than where we are running for this current year. I feel that the corn market will be well supported on any bearish news as stocks are still tight enough in the U.S. and World and we have too much weather to get through until we can take any premium out of the corn market.
Soybeans continue to get planted well ahead of the 5-year average pace. Conditions for soybeans have been a bit better than the corn as the cool weather has stalled the corn emergence out a bit. Now we will start to warm up this week and into next week, so I look for crop ratings to start out pretty high. On the USDA Crop Production report today, trade estimates continue to hold U.S. soybean ending stocks in the 350-million-bushel area which is right where our current ending stocks estimates are for this marketing year. The big difference between corn and soybeans is the World ending stocks on soybeans is much bigger than compared to World corn ending stocks. Much like the corn market, I feel soybean prices will be well supported if we get any bearish report numbers today as the Funds will continue to defend their long position.
July Kansas City wheat futures gapped higher on the open last night off the crop ratings losing 3% out of the “Good/Excellent” category. Domestically, the U.S. wheat crop continues to get a bit smaller. Today’s USDA Crop Production report could hold some surprises in the wheat market. Will the USDA address the poor crop conditions and give us a lower yield? Will the USDA make any adjustments regarding wheat abandonment in the southern wheat plains? Trade estimates are looking for 818 million bushels of carryout for wheat.
