April 9, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 6-8c,
🛢️crude oil is up $4.38-$4.39,
💲US Dollar is down 14 points
-The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is on shaky ground. Vice President JD Vance and others are heading to the Middle East to meet in person.
-USDA will release their April Crop Production report here today at 11:00 am CT. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn ending stocks at 2.131 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks at 351 million bushels and wheat ending stocks at 920 million bushels.
-Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 am CT today as well. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 750,000-1,700,000 metric tons, soybean 200,000-650,000 metric tons, wheat 150,000-550,000 metric tons and soybean meal 220,000-450,000 metric tons.
-Crude oil futures are back trading close to $100 per barrel this morning.
-May corn futures are finding support at the 200-day moving average and May soybeans found support at the 50-day moving average.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.46 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.55 which is the 10-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.73 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.83 which is the 10-day.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.55 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.70 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.28 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.74 1/4 which is the high from March 12th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.87 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.17 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn is back 2-3 cents higher here this morning as they shrugged off the weakness in crude oil yesterday and only managed to close down a couple cents. The Funds stepped in and supported the market as tensions in the Middle East still remain murky. It is nice to see grain prices separate themselves from the energy markets. As we head into spring planting season, the overall conditions look good. The extended forecast suggest we should have a pretty average planting season after what initially looked to be an early planting season. USDA will give us their update on U.S. ending stocks today and there is a chance we could see them increase our demand for corn and actually decrease corn ending stocks. If we do see a change in ending stocks, it will likely be 50 million bushels or less, so not a huge market mover.
May soybean futures remain locked in a trading range between $11.50 and $11.70. Soybeans were able to shrug off the weakness in the energy markets and more importantly the weakness in the soybean oil complex yesterday and close higher. Rumors are China got involved with Iran to push them towards opening up the Strait of Hormuz so that is viewed as a positive when looking at the U.S. and China relationship. The USDA report today should be neutral on soybeans. The USDA seems to have a good handle on the soybean ending stocks and, in this report, we are not expecting any changes from last month.
Wheat futures are gaining back some of what they lost yesterday. The crop conditions in the southern plains will be closely monitored as western Kansas and Oklahoma continue to miss out on the rains. The U.S. Dollar is back below 99, helping make U.S. wheat a little more competitive but I don’t expect any fresh new export business. Another item we need to closely watch is the availability of fertilizer. With what is going on in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the World’s wheat crop could suffer a bit as nitrogen out of the Middle East will continue to be hard to get and might be too expensive, thus cutting back on some production.
