February 19, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 6-7c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.84-$0.85,
💲US Dollar is up 1 point
-The USDA Ag Outlook Forum will begin today. First numbers out are expected around 8:30 am CT here today.
-Trade is expecting around 95 million acres for corn and 84.9n million acres for soybeans. The bigger items to look for is what will the USDA do as far as any shift in demand for corn and soybeans.
-Tensions between U.S. & Iran as escalating, pushing crude oil prices higher.
-November soybeans above $11.00 futures might be swinging a few more acres to get planted to soybeans this spring.
-Weahter continues to be pretty normal for South America. Yes, there are some issues but not enough to cause any major production losses.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed to higher trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $11.26 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.41 1/2 which is the high from February 12th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.52 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.68 1/4 which is the high from February 12th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.36 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.55 1/4 which is the high from February 12th.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures had a very small trading range yesterday on very light volume. The trade is simply looking for some fresh new news to trade on. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum will be out today and tomorrow, and the main focus will be on the USDA outlook on demand for corn in the coming years. Will they see any major shifts in U.S. corn demand or will they stay relatively quiet? Colder temperatures and some blizzard conditions in the Upper Midwest is slowing up grain movement here for a couple days but should pick back up early next week as the weather warms up again. Basis levels look to stay soft or weak in the western corn belt while basis in the east should be steady. March corn continues to consolidate between $4.25 and $4.35
March soybean futures took our last week’s high but closed lower on the day. Today we are starting out higher again and we will see if we can sustain this rally or if we fail again. Trade attention will be on the numbers USDA gives out at the Ag Outlook Forum. Traders will be interested in the demand numbers and if the USDA projects any major shifts in demand for U.S. soybeans in the coming years. China still has not bought any of the 8 mmt of soybeans they are considering but that could take some time to develop. Soybean oil futures are pushing up towards $60 and that is helping support soybean prices. Traders are patiently awaiting the EPA announcement over the RVO’s. March soybeans seem to be finding some resistance in the $11.40-$11.45 area.
March Kansas City wheat closed back above the 200-day moving average yesterday and are trading higher so far this morning. The more time we can spend above the 200-day moving average, the more likely we are to see some Fund buying surface. Funds are still holding a rather big, short position and could look to unwind some or all those positions as we head into the spring.
