February 18, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 8-9c,
🍞wheat is up 8-9c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.79-$0.80,
💲US Dollar is up 14 points
-NOPA soybean crush come in at 221.6 million bushels for January compared to estimates of 218.5 million bushels.
-Crush continues to run ahead of the USDA annual projection.
-Weekly export sales were above trade estimates on corn, at the upper end for soybeans and within the range for wheat.
-Soybean export inspections should continue to run solid for a few weeks as we ship out the 12 mmt of soybeans China bought.
-Safrinha corn planting is at 31% complete, down 5% from average. Dr. Michael Cordonnier to his Brazil corn production estimate down 1 mmt due to the crop behind on planting pace.
-Soybean prices are taking out last week’s highs while corn continues to consolidate.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade her today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $11.22 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.41 1/2 which is the high from February 12th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.48 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.68 1/4 which is the high from February 12th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.36 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.55 1/4 which is the high from February 12th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are getting part of what the lost yesterday back. Coming out of a 3-day weekend and excellent weather across the entire U.S., we saw a lot of hedging pressure as elevators and ethanol plants are getting swamped with corn moving from the farmer. Weekly export inspections were strong again yesterday and continue to run ahead of the pace needed to achieve the USDA export number. A few rain delays in Brazil are causing the safrinha corn crop to fall behind the average planting pace, so we are seeing a few analysts start to take their corn production estimates for Brazil down a touch. December corn futures continue to hang around $4.60, and this could be a good area to start selling some new crop corn and so far the crop insurance average price for December is running right about $4.60.
NOPA January crush come in at 221.6 million bushels vs estimates at 218.5 million bushels. The January crush was solid but down from 225 million bushels in December. For the marketing year, crush continues to run ahead of the USDA expected pace for the year. March soybean futures held on to a 1 cent gain yesterday and now this morning, we are seeing buying come back to the soybean market and March took out last week’s high and are trading at the highest level since early December. We are still waiting to see if China will buy those other 8 mmt of soybeans but the money flow sure seems to think they eventually will buy some or all of them. With November soybean futures pushing above the $11.20 level, I would have to think that soybeans are starting to buy back a few acres for the 2026 growing season. As we approach $11.00 cash price for new crop beans, I would think we would see some new crop hedging.
March Kansas City wheat continues to keep the uptrend intact as they held support at the 10-day and 20-day moving average yesterday. March Kansas City wheat futures are back trading above the 200-day moving average again. We traded above there last week for 1 day before falling back. If we can trade a couple days above the 200-day moving average, I would think we could see some new buying take place as the Funds might look to buy back some of their short positions. Watch the close in March Kansas City wheat on if it can hold above the 200-day moving average.
