February 5, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 10-11c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.00-$1.01,
💲US Dollar is up 23-24 points
-Soybean futures traded 894,000+ contracts yesterday. This is a record for any 1-day period.
-President Trump posted yesterday that China is considering buying up to 20 mmt of soybeans from the U.S. this season.
-Ethanol weekly production was down 14% from previous week. Cold weather had a lot to do with the draw on production.
-Brazil harvest keeps ramping up. The question remains not if they have a record soybean crop but how big is their soybean crop?
-USDA announced a 130,840 mt corn sales to unknown destination. Rumor is that it was Korea buying the corn.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade to start off Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from November 24th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the low from November 21st.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.80 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.15 which is the high from February 4th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.02 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.37 1/4 which is the high from February 4th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.49 which is the 200-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures saw a choppy trade yesterday and ultimately ended the day about 1 cent higher. The big news was in the soybean complex where President Trump said China is considering buying more soybeans from the U.S. along with other agriculture products. While soybeans rallied 45-50 cents off of that news, corn was only able to muster up a 3-4 cent rally. As March corn traded back to the $4.32-$4.33 area, we saw some selling pickup. USDA did announce a export flash sale of 130,840 mt of corn to unknown destinations which is rumored to be Korea. The U.S. is still the cheapest corn in the World and demand should stay robust. Weekly ethanol production saw a 14% decline from last week mainly due to the cold weather we saw across the U.S. March corn is still finding a lot of resistance in the $4.32-$4.35 area and I think we will need to see a bigger move higher in soybeans to push corn out of that range.
President Trump had a long thorough call with China’s President Xi yesterday. They covered a wide range of topics and one of them was centered around China considering buying 20 mmt of soybeans from the U.S. this season. Now they have already bought 12 mmt so this could be an additional 8 mmt. Put that in perspective, 8 mmt is about 294 million bushels and the U.S. ending stocks are projected to be around 350 million bushels. Now this is just a consideration, and nothing is final, but you can see why the market pushed sharply higher yesterday. If China would come in to buy an additional 8 mmt of soybeans from the U.S. this raises a lot of questions. Would the U.S. need to import soybeans from South America? Would the rest of the World stop buying from the U.S. and shift to South America? This will take some time to digest and work through, but it does feel like we have our lows in place in soybeans in the near term.
Wheat is just a follower. While soybeans rallied 25 cents yesterday, March Kansas City wheat was lower. March Kansas City wheat simply is pushing back down to support at $5.26 1/2 and it held this morning. The uptrend is still intact and now we will see if March Kansas City wheat can push back up towards the upper end of the range at $5.50.
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