January 16, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 2-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.72-$0.73,
💲US Dollar is down 8-9 points
-EPA is getting closer to finalizing a decision on the biodiesel mandates. Trade is looking for 5.2-5.6-billion-gallon mandate.
-EPA is also reluctant to penalize imported feedstock that they once were.
-Strong flash export sales on corn and soybeans announced yesterday.
-China should have th2 12 MMT they agreed to purchase all taken care of. Now will they continue to buy to meet the 25 MMT/year agreement?
-Weather is still a non-event in South America as Brazil slowly ramps up soybean harvest.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade today in the corn and soybean complexes.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.10 which is the August 12th low. Resistance is at $4.25 1/2 which is the October 14th low.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.28 1/2 which is the August 12th low. Resistance comes in at $4.41 1/2 which is the October 14th low.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.58 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 3/4 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.82 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.08 1/4 which is the January 2nd low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 which is the high from December 26th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures failed to hold their strength yesterday. Seems like $4.25 1/2 is our upside resistance for now. We saw a couple flash sale export announcements yesterday to help boost the market but the selling that shows up at $4.25 area is keeping the corn in a tight trading range. The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their estimate for the Argentia corn crop by 1 mmt. For the most part the farmer has shut off grain sales for now. This could help firm up basis levels in a few areas but in the western corn belt, there are still plenty of piles of corn on the ground so an improvement in the basis should be met with some commercial selling. I look for March corn to settle in and trade between $4.10 and $4.35.
The EPA is getting closer to making a decision regarding the bio-based diesel. Last summer we heard the mandate could be 5.6 billion gallons. Now the trade is hearing the mandate could be 5.2-5.6 gallons. On the surface this is not bullish news, but I think more so the market just wants to know what the mandate will be. Soybeans had a nice rally yesterday and are following it up a couple cents higher. I would expect this $10.50-$10.60 area on the March futures to be some resistance as soybean never sold off that hard after the crop report on Monday. Brazil is ramping up harvest and that should keep a lid on a price rally.
March Kansas City wheat futures are forming a wedge formation. Lately we have had a higher lows and lower highs to set up this wedge. Now depending on where we breakout at, the targets would be $5.00 on the downside and $5.55-$5.60 on the upside. Funds are still carrying a pretty good sized short position and heading into spring weather, we might see the Funds buy back some of them short positions. For now, wheat is a follower of the corn and soybean markets and stuck in a trading range between $5.15 and $5.35.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
