December 29, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.17-$1.18,
💲US Dollar is down 1-2 points
-First notice day for January contracts is Wednesday December 31st.
-COT and Weekly export sales “catch up” reports will be out this morning.
-Weather in Brazil still looks very good for crop growth while southern Argentina has been dry.
-President Trump and President Zelenskyy met in Florida yesterday to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
-Gold and silver prices are lower but still up at record high prices. February gold is $4482/oz while March silver is at $75.04/oz.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy to lower trade to start out this last week of trading for 2025.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.38 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.52 1/4 which is the December 2nd high.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.53 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.65 which is the December 2nd high.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 1/2 which is the high from October 3rd. Resistance is at $10.71 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.80 1/2 which is the low from December 19th. Resistance is at $11.05 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the October 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 1/2 which is the high from December 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures pushed above $4.50 last week but that is the area we continue to find some selling. The Funds are rumored to continue to buy back their short position and are estimated to be short about 20,000 contracts. The COT report should be caught up here by the end of this week. Demand is still very strong in the export and ethanol markets. We are seeing a few areas in the U.S. where basis levels have firmed up but that might just be more of the holiday’s than anything. I would expect more corn to start moving next week when we get into the new year. I still look for March corn futures to trend sideways between $4.35 and $4.50 with rallies above $4.50 sold.
First notice day for January contracts is this week. The focus will shift over to the March contract as commercials and producers roll their positions to the March or beyond this week. Weather in Brazil looks really good. There might be a little dryness in the next 2 weeks for Brazil but that will be followed up with some good rains. Central and southern Argentina remains on the dry side and something to watch. If the weather stays dry in Argentina, look for soybean meal to start to move higher. March soybeans seem to have found some support around $10.60 but rallies will be shallow like we saw last week. Basis levels for U.S. soybeans are steady to firmer in most areas.
Wheat futures saw a nice rally last week with Kansas City wheat up 18 cents. Tensions in the Black Sea region helped push wheat back up to resistance. President Trump and President Zelenskyy met in Florida yesterday to talk about a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The 2 countries have made progress towards a peace deal but there is still no end in sight yet. The U.S. dollar trading down to 98 or lower is also lending some support to the wheat market. I look for March Kansas City wheat to remain in the $5.00 to $5.30 trading range.
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