December 12, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 8-9c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.82-$0.83,
💲US Dollar is down .03-.05
-CONAB released their estimates for the Brazilian crop. Corn is estimated at 138.879 MMT vs 138.84 and the soybean crop is estimated at 177.1 MMT vs 177.6 MMT.
-Tensions are increasing in the Black Sea region again
-March corn futures failed to close above the 200-day moving average again yesterday.
-January soybeans are lower this morning but holding above the Wednesday’s low and starting to consolidate.
-Corn and soybean basis levels seem to be holding steady across much of the U.S.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.36 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.47 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.68 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.04 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.03 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.32 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.19 1/2 which is the November 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.33 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures continue to struggle with the 200-day moving average. On the week, March corn has only had a 6 1/2c trading range and is about unchanged for the week. CONAB estimates the Brazil corn crop up just a touch mainly due to increased acres. Funds continue to hold a short position estimated around 70,000 contracts short. Look for March corn futures to continue to consolidate between $4.40 and $4.50.
CONAB took their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop down about 500,000 MT and is now estimated at 177.1 MMT. This is still a record soybean crop for Brazil but the high watermark for the Brazil soybean crop might already been posted. Weather for the most part has been a non-event in Brazil, but their critical part of the growing season is just ahead. China has been active buying U.S. soybeans this week, but we still face stiff competition from Brazil on World prices. January soybeans are holding support from Wednesday, just above the gap left from October 24. Look for January soybeans to consolidate here a bit between $10.80 and $11.00.
March Kansas City wheat futures are back down trading near support at $5.19 1/2. Heading into the weekend, it will be important to hold support here today. Tensions are rising again in the Black Sea Region, adding a little pressure to the grain prices as well.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
