December 5, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.14-$0.16,
💲US Dollar is up .03-.04
-Grain prices are taking back some of their gains from Thursday.
-Stats Canada estimated their corn output to be at 14.867 MMT compared to USDA at 15.55 MMT.
-Stats Canada estimated their wheat output at 39.964 MMT vs USDA at 37 MMT.
-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to indicate that China has until the end of February 2026 to meet their 12 MMT purchases of U.S. soybeans.
🐂🐻 Look for lower trade to finish out the week.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on December corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.47 3/6 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.62 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $11.13 1/4 which is the November 21st low. Resistance is at $11.69 1/4 which is the high from November 18, 2025.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.39 3/4 which is the November 21st low. Resistance is at $11.81 1/2 which is the high from November 18, 2025.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.19 1/2 which is the November 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Flash sale of 392,500 MT corn to Mexico at 100,800 MT to Colombia helped push the corn market higher yesterday. Today, we are taking 1-2c of the gain back as we just don’t have a lot of fresh new news to trade on. Stats Canade did release their corn estimate and it was a little smaller that wheat the USDA is projecting, which also added a little support to the corn market on Thursday. We will get the December USDA Crop Production report out on Tuesday. Early estimates show not much changing for the demand number, so the trade is looking for a quiet report. Look for corn to continue to consolidate here between $4.35 and $4.50 March futures.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to indicate that China has until the end of February to purchase the 12 MMT of soybeans they agreed to buy. This is still murky but what we do know is China bought a lot of beans from South America in September and October when traditionally they buy those soybeans from the U.S. It will take a little time for China to buy those beans and a longer time to take delivery of those beans due to the big corn export program we have on the books today. I feel China will hold up their end of the deal and buy these soybeans, but the market wants them to buy now and is getting a bit impatient. January soybeans continue to consolidate between $11.13 and $11.35.
Stats Canada estimated their wheat output at 39.964 MMT vs USDA estimate at 37 MMT. This put pressure on the spring wheat while the winter wheat traded higher yesterday. March Kansas City wheat traded back up and tested the 100-day moving average and got rejected again. Once we close above the 100-day moving average for more than 1 day, that is where we should see some buying surface as the Funds look to buy back their short positions. Until we get a close above the 100-day moving average, March Kansas City wheat looks to trade between $5.20 and $5.36.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
