November 14, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.61-$1.62,
💲US Dollar is up .21-.22
-It is report day. Trade estimates are looking for corn yield of 181.7 bushels per acres and a soybean yield of 53.3 bushels per acre.
-USDA will also release all the past flash sales that would have been released while the government was shutdown. Will we see many Chinese purchases?
-Corn futures trading above the 200-day moving average for the first time since June 9th.
-Corn and soybean spreads continue to firm up.
-There is some drought talk happening in Brazil. It is very early in their growing season but something we need to monitor.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy trade this morning until we get the USDA Crop Production report at 11:00 am CST.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.30 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.42 1/4 which is the high form July 3rd.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.59 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.74 1/2 which is the high from July 3rd.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $11.03 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.50 1/2 which is the high from November 13, 2025.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.33 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.74 3/4 which is the high from November 13, 2025.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.17 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.40 which is the high from November 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures are hitting a little resistance here this morning up at the July 3rd high we had this summer, right before we gapped lower. We are working on the 2nd day of trading above the 200-day moving average as well. Trading above the 200-day moving average should allow the Funds to continue to buy out of their short positions and go to the long side. The trade will be focused on the USDA Crop Production report here today. Trade is looking for a national corn yield to come in at 181.7 bushels per acre vs the September report of 186.7 bushels per acre. My bias is we will get a corn yield reduction, but we could see the yield come in closer to 183-184 bushels per acre. Demand remains very strong for U.S. corn.
Soybeans continue to defy the odds. Fundamentals are still bearish, yet the Funds seem to be wanting to buy soybeans. The trend is up so trade accordingly. Trade is looking for a soybean yield of 53.3 bushels per acre, and my bias is we could see that yield actually comes in a bit smaller. I feel we had too many reports of disappointing soybean yields across the U.S. and think we could see the U.S. soybean yield at 53.0 or even less. Brazil is a bit on the dry side, but it is early. Forecasters are calling for a light La Nina weather event for Brazil which typically brings drier conditions. However, Brazil has raised some really good crops in a La Nina events too. The U.S. continues to wait for the so-called Chinese demand to show up.
Wheat futures have a confirmed low in place. The U.S. Dollar remains elevated trading between 99-100 making U.S. wheat a bit uncompetitive. World wheat stocks are on the tight side but when we grow wheat in so many countries, the market does not get too worried about tight World supplies. I look for wheat to consolidate here and look for December Kansas City wheat futures to trend between $5.20 and $5.40.
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