September 29, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is mixed,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.08-$1.10,
💲US Dollar is down 17-18 points.
-The Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans and wheat last week. Funds are short 94,675 contracts of corn, short 29,302 contracts of soybeans and short 174,592 contracts of all wheat.
-Harvest pace should ramp up this week with soybean harvest at full peak.
-The weather forecast is still calling for above normal temperatures across the majority of the U.S., and the precipitation seems to be limited to the western part of the U.S. in the 6-10-day forecast and 814-day forecast.
-USDA Grain Stocks report will be out tomorrow morning at 11:00 am CDT.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed to lower trade today as we start the week.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.18 1/4 which is the low from September 22nd. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.51 1/4 which is the low from September 22nd. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.65 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.10 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are a bit lower this morning. The weather forecast looks wide open this week for corn harvest to ramp up. Traders are busy positioning themselves ahead of the USDA Grain Stocks report which will be released tomorrow morning at 11:00 am CDT. Trade estimates are not looking for too many surprises in the Grain Stocks report, but you never know. Will the USDA find some extra corn bushels out there due to last year’s crop being cut a little too much? Look for corn to be a little lower today as we see some harvest pressure weigh on corn prices.
Soybean harvest should be at full steam this week. Above normal temps and very little precipitation across most of the U.S. should have farmers racing to get their soybeans out of the fields. Yields continue to come in very good. With the amount of yields I have seen and where they are coming in at, I have to wonder if in futures USDA report, will we see much of any yield drop? The Funds are back on the short side as a combination of harvest pressure, good yields and no trade deal with China is limiting our upside.
December Kansas City wheat futures spent a whole day above the 20-day moving average and are now back down testing support. For the last 3-weeks, Kansas City wheat futures have traded between $4.97 and $5.24, putting in a good basing pattern. Corn harvest is ramping up and that will keep a lid on corn prices and will in turn keep a lid on wheat prices.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 29, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
September 30, 2025 – Grain Stocks Report
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