September 11, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 47-48c,
💲US Dollar is up 18-19 points.
-Traders are positions themselves ahead of the September USDA Crop Production report.
-Choppy trade this week for corn and soybeans. December corn continues to hug the downtrend line we have had in place since April, and soybeans continue to bounce off the major moving averages around the $10.25 area.
-Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30 am CDT here this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 900,000-2,300,000 metric tons, soybeans 400,000-1,500,000 metric tons, soybean meal 50,000-900,000 metric tons and wheat 300,000-500,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed and choppy trade here today as traders prepare for the September Crop Production report.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.12 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.47 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.62 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.18 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
It is starting out to be another quiet trade for corn futures. Traders are waiting to see what the USDA will have in store for us tomorrow when they release their September Crop Production report. The trade is expecting corn and soybean yields to drop. We could also see corn planted acres increase again in this report. I feel if we see a drop in yields in the September report, we will likely see yields drop in October and into the final report in January. It feels like our low is in place from August 12th when the USDA gave us one of the most bearish corn reports ever and corn stabilized out of that report and are trading 20+ cents off those lows.
If the planted corn acres increase, look for planted soybeans acres to decrease. Combination of potentially lower yield and a decrease in planted soybean acres should support the soybean complex. However, we still have not sold a bushel of new crop soybeans to China and with that we could see the USDA trim our export demand a little, keeping carryout levels around 300 million bushels. Soybean export demand to the rest of the World is very strong, we are just missing China.
Wheat futures continue their grind. U.S. wheat is struggling to be competitive in the World market being undercut by Black Sea wheat and EU wheat. Wheat futures are back testing contract lows here this morning, look for some fresh news to trade on. Look for wheat to continue is grind sideways to lower.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
September 15, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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