September 9, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 48-50c,
💲US Dollar is down 16-17 points.
-Crop ratings saw both corn and soybeans drop 1% out of the good/excellent category but are still rated very high. Corn is rated 68% good/excellent and soybeans are rated 64% good/excellent.
-Weekly export inspections were strong again for all 3 grain complexes. Corn export pace for the new marketing year continues to be impressive but it needs to be with the USDA’s lofty goal of 2.875 billion bushels for exports.
-The weather continues to look very beneficial for harvest to pick up steam across southern Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska and Missouri this week. Yields continue to come in all over the place.
-September futures go off the board this Friday at 12:00 pm CDT. Watch where September futures go off the board as that will be a focus area for the December and November contracts to gravitate towards.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.10 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.45 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.19 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures pushed back above the downtrend line they have been messing around with for close to a week now. Will they finally close above that trendline for more than 2 days? The weather across much of the corn belt looks dry and very warm, pushing harvest progress along fast. The U.S. will likely have a lot of the corn harvest knocked out south of interstate 90 before they start any soybeans. Yields are coming in all over the board. The disease pressure is definitely causing an issue across the U.S. and will cause the overall yield to drop. The corn market is stuck between getting support with a crop getting smaller, but harvest pressure is ramping up. Rallies should be limited here in the near term.
November soybeans held support again yesterday. Harvest is still 1-2 weeks away as corn harvest in a lot of areas looks to get underway this week. Export demand for U.S. soybeans to all countries except China, continue to run very strong. Combination of no trade deal with China or details about the 45Z program has the soybean market limited to the upside. Soybean yield potential still looks good for much of the U.S. as there is some disease pressure but not a lot more than usual. Look for November soybeans to continue to trend between $10.25 and $10.65.
Strong week of export inspections again for wheat helped push them higher yesterday. In a market that is very oversold it was nice to see all 3 wheat complexes post solid gains. Prices are at their lowest levels since 2020 and overdue for a bounce higher. Kansas City wheat futures are running into resistance here this morning at the 20-day moving average but if they could close above the 20-day moving average, this would help signal a potential bottom is in place.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
September 15, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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