September 2, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 6-7c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.90-$1.92,
💲US Dollar is up 60-61 points.
-The 6-10-day weather forecast is calling for cool and dry in the central and eastern part of the U.S. with the upper plains and western part of the U.S. near normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation.
-The Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans and wheat last week. The Funds are now short about 110,686 contracts of corn and holding a long position in soybeans of about 20,818 contracts long.
-Disease pressure across Iowa and Illinois is getting some attention in the corn market. Southern rust is getting worse and causing farmers to worry about yields and stalk strength.
-Corn harvest pressure should increase this week with a lot of corn planted early this year and disease pressure.
-Corn demand for U.S. corn continue to stay robust while soybean demand is still lacking any sales to China.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed to lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.06 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.30 1/4 which is the high from July 18th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.56 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.60 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.06 3/4 which is the low from August 28th. Resistance comes in at $5.25 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures had an impressive rally last Thursday & Friday heading into the 3-day weekend. Fueled by southern rust issues in the corn crop across Iowa and Illinois, traders are adding some risk premium back into the corn market as fears are growing that the overall national yield on corn could see a repeat of last year where the final yield was down more that 4 bushels per acres from the USDA August yield estimate. Part of the rally too last week was month end Fund short covering. For the past few weeks, we have seen the Funds start buying back their short position they built this summer. We still have a farmer that is very undersold and as harvest moves further north, we could see some hedging pressure offset the Fund buying.
Soybean futures are pulling back here this morning. Weather forecasts are calling for much cooler temperatures this week for the central and eastern U.S. with lows in the 30’s. The jury is still out on the overall size of the U.S soybean crop but we are hearing of more disease problems this year. Now we typically have some disease problem like white mold and SDS so hard to tell if this is normal or if we have more issues this year. Harvest is still a few weeks away. The yield potential is still good, and we will find out if the cooler temps in the eastern part of the U.S. helped offset the drier conditions for the soybean yields. November soybean futures continue to find good support around $10.25 with resistance above $10.60.
Wheat futures are starting out the week lower. Last Thursday we saw December Kansas City wheat put in a new low trade before closing the day higher. That low of $5.06 3/4 last Thursday will be an important level to watch this week to see if it can hold up. Corn and soybean futures seem to have good support under the current market and that should help wheat futures as well. We did see the Funds be net buyers of wheat this past week.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
September 8, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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