August 25, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 45-47c,
💲US Dollar is up 22-23 points.
-The Funds were net buyers of corn and soybean last week and nest seller of wheat.
-The Funds are holding a net short position of -144,650 short corn and a very small, long position of soybeans at 3 contracts long.
-The weather forecast in the 6-10 day is still calling for below normal temperatures with below normal precipitation. The 3-4 week forecast though is calling for warmer temperatures with normal precipitation.
-Pro Farmer yield forecasts came in at 182.7 bushels per acre on corn and 53.0 bushels per acre on soybeans. This compares to USDA at 188.8 bushels per acre on corn and 53.6 bushels per acre on soybeans.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade to start off the week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.84 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $3.96 1/4 which is the high from August 1st.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.06 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.30 1/4 which is the high from July 18th.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $10.17 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.50 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.26 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.96 which is the low from August 20th. Resistance comes in at $5.10 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures posted a 6c rally last week. As we start off this week, December corn is 3-4c higher with strength coming in from the ideas the USDA is overstating the crop size. Warm temps during pollination and disease pressure are the main culprits that are causing some concern on the overall crop size. Regardless of the final yield number we get on this year’s corn crop, I still think it will be a record crop. The question I have is can we achieve the 605-million-bushel usage increase year over year the USDA is projecting? It feels like the USDA has built them a cushion in that if the yield does come down, they have some room to lower overall demand, thus keeping carryout around 2 billion bushels of corn. December corn is pushing back up towards $4.20 and that seems to be an area of consolidated trade we might find some resistance in the near term.
November soybeans saw a 16c rally last week. EPA’s decision on the SRE’s last week seems to be a little friendly to soybean oil but a lot of that has already been built into the current prices. Soybean crop looks to be a potential record if we finish off the crop. However, we saw a mostly drier week last week and the 6–10-day forecast is calling for more dryness especially in the eastern part of the U.S. November soybeans are comfortably trading above our major moving averages but seem to be finding some resistance at the upper end of the trading range we saw all summer. The biggest limiting factor right now is China. Without China in buying U.S. soybeans, traders have to question just how high can nearby soybeans rally.
Kansas City wheat futures are still struggling with the $5.00 area trading on both sides of $5.00 the last few trading sessions. Wheat will be a follower of corn and soybeans and as corn seems to be pushing upward, I would think wheat futures should have good support under the market. Issues with the wheat market is we just don’t much for new news to trade on. So, until we get some fresh news on the wheat market, look for wheat to consolidate and follow corn futures.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 25, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
September 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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