August 22, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 10-12c,
💲US Dollar is up 9-10 points.
-The EPA is preparing to issue the long-awaited decisions on 200 Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE’s). The decisions could come today and expected to see some granted and some denials.
-Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up its tour yesterday. Their final yield tallies will be released today.
-In Iowa, Pro Framer Crop Tour found a corn yield of 198.43 vs 192.79 last year and 186.47 3-year average. On the soybeans they found 1384.38 pods vs 1312.31 last year and 1225.72 pods in the 3-year average.
-In Minnesota, Pro Farmer Crop Tour found a corn yield of 202.86 vs 164.9 last year and a 3-year average of 178.88 bushels per acre. On the soybeans they found 1247.86 pods vs 1036.59 pods last year and a 3-year average of 1040.78 pods.
-Weekly export sales out yesterday were strong once again for corn and soybeans but at the bottom end of expectations for the wheat. Corn exports continue to run well ahead of last year’s pace.
-The weather forecasts are calling for below normal temperatures and precipitation for a big portion of the U.S. With the big pod counts in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, will the soybean crop fill all of them pods?
🐂🐻Look for a steady to higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.91 which is the low from July 14th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.06 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.30 1/4 which is the high from July 18th.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $10.17 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.50 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.26 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.96 which is the low from August 20th. Resistance comes in at $5.12 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are a little stronger here this morning after the nice uptick yesterday. Combination of a strong export sales, a potential smaller corn crop in Illinois and tailwind from a potential announcement from the EPA today regarding SRE’s, helped push corn futures 7-8c higher yesterday. December corn traded and closed above the 20-day moving average for the first time since July 18th. There is a consolidation of trade on the December corn contract between $4.20 and $4.30 and that could be a target area. I still feel rallies will be limited and the December corn futures could settle in and trade between $4.00 and $4.25.
November soybeans traded the highest level since July 3rd yesterday. Lead by soybean oil, we saw November soybeans gain 20c on the day. EPA could announce today their decisions on SRE’s that are expected to be friendly to soybean oil. Add into the mix a U.S. weather forecast that looks cooler and dry for the next 6-10 days and we have a stronger soybean market. November soybeans are testing the July 3rd high and finding a little resistance so far. Next objective to the upside would be the June 20th high of $10.74 1/4.
Kansas City September wheat futures are back testing support at the $5.00 level here this morning. Wheat futures are riding the coattails of the corn market, but a weak weekly export sales number yesterday will keep a lid on the wheat futures in the near term. Also, the U.S. Dollar is back trading above 98, making U.S. wheat a little less competitive. Look for Kansas City wheat futures to grind around the $5.00 area.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
August 25, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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