August 19, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 2-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 68-69c,
💲US Dollar is down 9-10 points.
-Weekly Crop Progress report saw corn ratings slip 1% out of the good/excellent category but still rated 71% good/excellent. Soybeans saw conditions unchanged from last week and are still rated 68% good/excellent.
-Flash sale of 124,000 metric tons of corn was sold to unknown destinations.
-Pro Farmer Crop tour started yesterday. Average to above average yields were found across South Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio and Indiana. However, there was some tip back noted and a few pollination issues.
-Weekly export inspections were at the low end of estimates for corn and wheat but still respectful on the soybeans.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.86 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.07 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.92 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.20 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.12 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 which is the low from August 14th. Resistance comes in at $5.16 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures went up and hit the 20-day moving average at $4.08 and found some resistance. Rallies will continue to be limited as we wait for the combines to get rolling to determine just how big the corn crop is in the U.S. The Pro Farmer Crop tour kicked off yesterday and saw some mixed results in the east and the west. Overall, the corn crop looks to be above average. Rallies will be limited but we should find support around $4.00 on the December contract.
After a choppy trade yesterday, November soybeans ended the day 1c lower. November soybeans continue to trade and hold above the major moving averages and that is the trend I look to continue. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is finding above average soybean pods so far. The eastern part of the U.S. continues to be drier than the rest of the U.S., so the question is how will this crop finish out? Export demand as of late has seen a nice uptick, helping add support.
Wheat futures continue to grind steady to lower. The Funds were net sellers of wheat last week and continue to hold a large short position across all 3 wheat complexes. The lower U.S. Dollar is helping make U.S. wheat a bit cheaper, but the market is very comfortable with tight World stocks. Wheat will continue to follow corn and soybeans.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
August 25, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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