August 12, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are down 12-13c,
🍞wheat is down 3-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up 3-5c,
💲US Dollar is up 3-4 points.
-USDA’s August Crop Production report will be out at 7:30 am CDT. Trade looking for a corn yield of 184.2 bushels per acre and 52.9 bushels per acre on soybean.
-The Trade is looking for 1.930 billion bushel carryout on corn, 358 million bushel carryout on soybeans and 883 million bushel carryout on wheat.
-Weekly Crop Progress saw corn and soybean ratings each drop 1%. Corn is rated 72% good/excellent and soybeans are rated 68% good/excellent.
-Above normal temps are forecasted for much of the U.S. in the 6-10 day forecast. The eastern corn belt has been on the drier side and this could take a toll on the soybean crop from not finishing.
-Corn and soybeans saw better than expected weekly export inspections yesterday while wheat inspections were below expectations.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.75 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $3.93 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.96 3/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $4.13 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.62 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $9.89 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.81 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $10.25 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $5.21 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market felt like it struggled to close up 2c yesterday and now today, with soybeans lower, we have corn down 4c. Most traders feel the corn crop is made it is just a matter of how big it is. The above normal temperatures for the U.S. later this week would not have too much effect on the corn crop. Seasonally we are heading into the time of year we typically put in a low. Barring any major surprises from the USDA, corn futures should continue to trade around the $4.00 area.
Soybean futures are setting back here today, taking back about 1/2 of what we gained yesterday. President Trump extended the tariff deadline with China for 90 days. The USDA will give us their estimate for the 2025-26 soybean crop here today. Traders are looking for an increase on soybean yield. The weather for much of the U.S. is calling for much above normal temperatures and in the eastern corn belt, that could be an issue for the soybean crop. August is a critical month for soybean growth and the eastern corn belt has been dry the past 2 weeks.
Wheat export inspections were a disappointment yesterday but it is just 1 week. The past few weeks have seen strong wheat export sales and inspections so 1 week off should not hurt the market. Soybeans and corn are lower today so wheat is following suit. Kansas City wheat futures continue to build a basing pattern trading between $5.00 and $5.20.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
August 18, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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