August 11, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 22-23c,
🍞wheat is up 1-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 3-5c,
💲US Dollar is up 9-10 points.
-President Trump sent out a message that China is worried about their soybean supplies and that he would like China to quadruple their soybean purchases from the U.S.
-Some heavy rains swept across Iowa and Wisconsin over the weekend, causing some major flooding. Rest of the U.S. saw season temperatures and some moisture. the CPC 6-10-day forecast is calling for normal precipitation and above normal temps.
-The Funds were big sellers of soybeans this past week and are now holding a net short position of 65,000+ contracts short. Funds were net buyers of corn on the week but are still holding a net short position of -173,000+ contracts short.
-USDA August Crop Production report will be out tomorrow morning at 11:00 am CDT. Traders are looking for a yield increase on corn of 3.2 bushels per acre and .4 bushels per acres on soybeans.
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.75 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $3.94 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.96 3/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $4.14 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.62 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $9.90 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.81 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $10.25 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $5.21 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are a higher this morning off of the strength in soybeans. The weather across the U.S. looks ideal for the corn crop to finish. This should give the U.S. close to a 16-billion-bushel corn crop in 2025. The USDA will give us their August estimates for the 2025-26 crop tomorrow. Traders are looking for a yield increase of 3.2 bushels per acre and most feel we have that already priced into the market. Rallies in the corn market will still be hard to sustain due to the size of the U.S. crop and South America is wrapping up their corn harvest and their crop was bigger than expected as well.
President Trump put out a message suggesting he would like to see China quadruple their soybeans purchases from the U.S. and that got the soybeans moving higher. November soybeans are back above the $10 handle and testing resistance around the 20-day moving average. We still do not have a trade deal with China so until deal is done, I feel rallies will be short lived. The weather continues to look good for soybeans to finish out the year. We do have some above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day forecast so we will see how well the crop holds up. Traders are looking for the USDA to increase the soybean yield by 0.4 bushels per acre tomorrow.
Wheat continues to be a follower of corn and soybeans. Demand for U.S. wheat continues to run very strong for the marketing year and a U.S. Dollar under 99 is helping that. Spring wheat harvest will continue to push forward in North Dakota this week. Some wet weather for North Dakota is forecasted so that will cause harvest to slow down a bit.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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