August 7, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 3-6c,
🛢️crude oil is up 53-54c,
💲US Dollar is down 1-2 points.
-December corn futures traded below $4.00 but did not settle below $4.00.
-Concerns about warm nighttime temps are circulating raising the question of pollination issues across the corn belt.
-China continues to buy soybean meal out of Argentina, causing some concern over demand out of the U.S.
-Wheat futures could be working on a low. Yesterday’s new low in the Kansas City wheat futures but then closing higher suggests we might have put in a low at least in the short term.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning at 7:30 am CDT. Here are the estimates: corn 1,200,000-2,900,000 metric tons, soybeans 350,000-1,200,000 metric tons and wheat 250,000-650,000 metric tons.
-Rumors of increased winter wheat demand out of the U.S. is supporting prices.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed to higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 1/2 which is the low from August 30, 2024. Resistance is at $3.95 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.00 which is a psychological low. Resistance comes in at $4.14 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.62 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance is at $9.91 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.71 1/4 which is the low from April 9th. Resistance is at $10.26 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.03 1.4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $5.22 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures traded below $4.00, down to $3.96 3/4 but managed to close out yesterday back above $4.00. As we get closer to harvest more farmers are getting out into their fields to check pollination and early yield checks. There seems to be a little concern mounting about the warm nighttime temps causing some tip back on ears. With December corn trading below $4.00, the market is pricing in a national corn yield of at least 185 bushels per acre. Corn prices are well oversold and due for a small bounce back up. Rallies will be limited as the farmer looks to sell the last of his old crop corn and harvest is slowly ramping up in the U.S.
Soybean futures ended yesterday down 6c after being down close to 10c. China has been buying soybean meal from Argentina lately and that further questions the overall demand we will see from China for U.S. soybeans or soybean products. Weather looks to be a non-event for soybean development. Old crop demand has been picking up a little bit the past few weeks, but we still have plenty of supply in the World and the U.S. crop looks to be big this year. It will take something like a significant trade deal with China to break us out of the downtrend soybeans are in.
Rumors of increased winter wheat demand out of the U.S. helped support prices yesterday. September Kansas City wheat made a new low and then closed higher, giving us hook reversal. We will need to close at $5.17 or higher to confirm a near term low is in place and we are working on that today. Overall, the longer December corn futures trade around $4.00, wheat futures will have a hard time rallying.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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